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<DIV><FONT size=3><FONT face="Bookman Old Style"><FONT
color=#000000>All,</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=#000000><FONT
face="Bookman Old Style"><FONT size=3></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3><FONT face="Bookman Old Style"><FONT
color=#000000> I want to thank everyone on the email
list who responded to my test GIF message. I'm now using Outlook Express
with the new MSN 2.5 for my email. Last week when I sent the RDC.GIF
several people received an encoded text message which they had to decode instead
of the GIF file or a chart picture embedded in my message. Since then I
found I could change several settings and sent a test GIF message with my SEND
options set to HTML, rich text, quoted printable, and send picture with message
all selected. Everyone that responded said they got either the embedded
picture of the GIF chart with the message or the GIF file. So I'm going
with these settings. Yell if anyone has any problems receiving the GIF
files.</FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=#000000><FONT
face="Bookman Old Style"><FONT size=3></FONT></FONT></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=3><FONT face="Bookman Old Style"><FONT
color=#000000></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT color=#000000><FONT
face="Bookman Old Style"><FONT size=3> I've finished my
weekly tests and spent a lot of time looking at the charts. I don't like
what I see for long positions. With Friday's pullback, all of my indices
look like they may be turning down from the top of their Short Term Down Trend
Channels (STDTC). I'll send a GIF of the NASD OTC Index to everyone on the
email list.</FONT></FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Bookman Old Style"
size=3> NASD at 1602.4 is in a STDTC with the top at
1624.87 and the bottom at 1414.4. It had rose from near the bottom of the
channel on 10/24 to near the top of the channel on Wednesday. It then fell
sharply on Thursday and Friday and looks like it may be heading for the bottom
of the channel again. RSquared has dropped a little to .73 to .61 in the
last few days, but that still indicates a fairly strong trend and Tema (S/C) and
Tema (CCI) are both negative and falling indicating a down trend. A worse
case scenario could have the NASD fall all the way back to support at the bottom
of the Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel which is currently at 1311.3. My
other indices (DJI, OEX, SPX, RUT, etc) have very similar looking charts except
that they are closer to support levels. I picked the worse one for my
example <G>.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 face="Bookman Old Style"
size=3> That's not a very pretty picture and definitely
not the climate for new long stock positions. The problem is that the
strong fundamentals are discouraging me from taking short positions. So
the question is what am I going to do? I am watching my long
positions closely and will cover any that close below the bottom of their up
trend channels. I'm still long CHB, CPU, IOM, NPD, OSU, and RDC stock and
TRV and MADGF LEAP calls. I'm also about 30% cash. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Bookman Old Style"> I've decided to
hedge this market a little with some bond positions. Bonds are tending to
run counter to stocks right now and I really do think that long term rates will
come down over the next few months. Since I don't know anything about bond
trading, I'm going to go with bond mutual funds that I can analyze just like a
stock mutual fund. Also since I think rates are going to decline, I want
to go for long term and high yield funds to get the maximum bang if my scenario
is correct. I ran a filter on my e-Schwab mutual fund database for long
term, high yield bond funds that had done well over the last year that I could
trade with no commissions. After looking at several, I narrowed my choices
down to Am Century - Benham Target Mat 2025 (BTTRX), Dryfus High Yield (DHIYX),
and Scudder Emerging Markets (SCEMX). All three have a total return
greater than 20% for the last 12 months. BTTRX is too close to the top of
intermediate and long term up trend channels to be at a good entry point.
SCEMX is in a short term down trend and looks very similar to the NASD
chart. That leaves DHIYX.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Bookman Old Style"> DHIYX at 14.89 is
in an Intermediate Term Up Trend Channel (ITUTC) with the top at 15.85 and the
bottom at 14.63. It looks like it may have turned up from a low of 14.76
on 10/31. It had been in a strong up trend since May before starting its
pullback to the low a couple of weeks ago. I'm going to put about 10% of
my portfolio in DHIYX Monday. In fact, I've already placed the order with
e-Schwab and will get it at Monday's closing price. I'm also going to
place another 10% in BTTRX or SCEMX when/if one of them get to a good entry
point.</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Bookman Old Style"> I'll send GIF
charts to everyone on the email list. If you aren't on the list and want
on, just yell. The only obligation is participation in this forum.
I'd be especially interested in your opinions (pro or con) on the wisdom of
entering the bond market now.</FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Bookman Old Style"></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face="Bookman Old Style">Jim</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2><FONT size=3> </FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=3><FONT size=2><FONT
size=3></FONT></FONT></FONT></FONT> <FONT color=#000000
size=2> I</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=3><FONT size=2></FONT></FONT></FONT><FONT
size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=3></FONT></FONT><FONT
size=3></FONT> <FONT color=#000000 size=2> </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000><FONT size=3></FONT></FONT><FONT size=3> <FONT
color=#000000> </FONT></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Sat Nov 08 12:00:22 1997
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Date: Sat, 08 Nov 1997 14:45:23 -0500
To: dymitrix@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
From: "James B. Kerwin" <anncora@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Tom DeMark Software
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Status:
<x-rich>Has anybody bought the Tom DeMark software? Has it lived up to the advertisements? Cab you use it intra-day? Is it worth looking at to trade options and stocks with?
<center>*********************************************
Have a nice Day
Jim Kerwin
Atlanta,Georgia
<<http://www.mindspring.com/~anncora/index.htm>
</center> **********************************************
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