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Tim Kruzel wrote:
> To All interested in the OBTR formula,
> In my original note containing the OBTR MetaStock formula
> I neglected to mention that the author of the formula
> (T. Bierovic) recommends using a 9 period exponential
> moving average of the OBTR along with the unsmoothed OBTR.
>
> He looks for crossing points as indicators. If nothing
> else,
> the moving average of the OBTR provides a nice visual cue
> for looking at the relative changes in the OBTR itself.
Livewire uses a default setting of 10 periods. 9 periods
gives faster reaction to a change in trend but will issue
more false signals. I've been using the 10 period default
for the 2 years I've used this program and it worked so well
I haven't experimented with other period settings. I'm
going to try both the 9 period and 10 period setting for
awhile.
Following is the 9 period OBTR status of:
DJIA-Issued a Sell signal today. 8/8 broke the uptrend line
beginning mid April. Close to testing the 50 day simple
moving average.
NASD-No sell signal yet. Lines are close to crossing. Close
today is right on the uptrend line beginning mid April
SP500-No Sell signal yet but lines are about to cross. A
further drop tomorrow should produce a Sell.
DJTA-Issued a Sell signal today
DJUA-Issued a sell signal on 8/8
SEP TBOND FUTURES-Issued a Sell signal on 8/6. Will be
coming into suport about 111.
DEC COMEX SILVER-Issued a buy signal on 8/8
DEC COMEX GOLD-Issued a weak buy signal on 7/29. For gold I
watch the XAU contract.
XAU-Issued strong buy on 7/22. Has broke above the 50 day
simple moving average and is coming close to testing the 200
day average. One of the big houses issued a gold buy either
yesterday or today. Heard it on CNBC but I was busy and
didn't catch which house. Maybe Morgan Stanley. That was for
gold stocks. Take a look at ASA on a very long term chart.
Interesting.
ASE NATURAL GAS INDEX-Issued BUY signal on 7/25. This is
seasonally a good time to buy these stocks but we have EL
Nino muddying the waters this year.
SP500 SPYDERS-Issued Sell signal today.
ASE BIOTECH INDEX-Issued Sell signal on 6/18 that continues
in effect. Weakest group I follow.
ASE PHARMACEUTIAL INDEX-Issued Sell signal 8/7. Very weak
group since.
Someone was interested in Boston Chicken recently. Noticed
Meril Lynch downgraded it 8/11. Where have they been?
Anyone that pays what they charge for commissions for this
type of research is crazy. Anyway, this may be a buying
opportunity. OBTR on the stock hasn't yet given a Buy but
it is getting close. ML's rating change wasn't able to drop
the price very much and it went up today while the market
fell 100+ points.
Anyone interested in a chart on any of these items showing
the OBTR email me and I'll
send it. You will need a copy of Paperport Viewer which is
free at
http://www.visioneer.com/
search for "Viewer" File is about 2mg as I recall.
Bob Doeden
bdoeden@xxxxxxxxxxxx
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