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i will be exiting all my longs
tomorrow
(we should get a higher hi for exit)
Ben
sos timing service
no web site just good service
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 9:45
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's
1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
My next Near Impulse date for the indexes is
3/30. On Daily charts I have trend change warnings but no sell signal
yet.
Jim
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 5:49
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fractal and
Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
Jim
Are we close to a pivot?
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 8:22
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] Fractal and
Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
Of course I am quite familiar with Elliott
Wave methodology but find it too unreliable as a basis for trading. It
seems no two Elliotticians can ever agree on wave count.
Thank you for the Wernicki web site reference
however I must take exception to his statement of being the first and only
fractal forecasting firm in the world since I have been doing it since
1998. I would love to read about his approach but find no descriptive
material on the web site. Are you aware of any? Perhaps I will email
him.
My work and basic approach ( "A New
Paradigm...") can be reviewed at my web site
PivotTrader.com
My forecasting is based on my "Near
ImpulseTheory" with non linear projections of impulse into the future. I
have focused my efforts on creating highly reliable trading tools based on
my methodology with an objective of identifying turning points within one
bar of the pivot..
Thanks again for the reference - I look
forward to learning more.
Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading
Co.
PivotTrader.com
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 4:28
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fractal and
Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
Too
much typing too little proofing. See cap
corrections.
Again,
Elliott Waves are a method of identifying self similar fractals. I
cannot imagine that you have not studied Elliott Waves if you?ve
developed a fractal system. You could spend weeks on Elliott Wave
methodology and it?s been around with R.N. Elliott first identified its
?rules? and Robert Prechter HAS popularized its use in the ?70s
via ?Elliott Wave Principles.?
The one
fractal practitioner who ?headlines? his work as more fractal geometry
than EW and with whom I have direct familiarity is Hank Wernicki.
He frequents Yelnick?s site and has a site at http://www.elliottfractals.com/.
During the rapid decline period of August 2008 to November 2008, he had
some fractal calls relying more upon his methodology than EW that
SUCCEEDED within minutes of his
prediction. They were spooky correct.
Huge moves.
More recently, his hand has gone cold, having called for a continuation
of the downtrend about 2 weeks ago?.
Market analogs
are OFTEN
CONSIDERED,
themselves, FRACTALS. Most often they?re
visual and not discovered by a system for that purpose, but many
analysts follow analogs. You can?t help but read the comparison
charts to prior bears, etc. Many analysts reduce their
analysis to correlation statistics and keep weekly running tabs on
correlation (Larry Tomlinson?s service is an example).
Again, my primary
concentration (as a
hobbyist and amateur) is Elliott Waves which is a
system of recognizing fractal generation and execution. What might
your system look like conceptually?
Jim
From:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim
White
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 6:07 PM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT]
Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI
date
I am familiar with
Mandelbrot's work on unifractals and multifractals and other than my own
non linear model and use of fractals, I was not aware of anyone else
making a practical application to trading. If you could provide more
detailed references as to where this approach originated and is
described, I would appreciate it.
----- Original
Message -----
Sent:
Thursday, March 26, 2009 2:28 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year
cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
A
self organizing geometric form. Recognizing the waves of the
parent fractal and locating the initial waves of a child fractal
allows you to enter a trade that anticipates the last waves of the
child fractal with higher probability. Benoit Mandelbrot (Nobel
mathematician), among others, claims chaos theory and non linear
systems can only be anticipated via fractal geometry. Elliott
Wave methodology is a method of anticipating fractal
generation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal
http://www.amazon.com/Mis-behavior-Markets-Benoit-Mandelbrot/dp/0465043550
http://www.economymodels.com/factalmarkets.asp
http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-fractals.html
There
are hundreds of references. There are websites dedicated to
fractal recognition and trading.
From:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim
White
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 4:39 PM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT]
Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI
date
Could you please
provide the definition of the "fractal" relative to market action and
a reference for its use in market analysis.
----- Original
Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 10:51
AM
Subject: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year
cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
I?ve been following a fractal the move from
October 11, 2007 ?wave 1? to March 10, 2008 being the parent of the
fractal (parent) of the wave from June 2008 to present (child) in
QQQQs. If you look at the last small portion of 2008 parent
fractal, you see a clear triangle and then a quick wave 5 to end
that wave on March 17, 2008. Here?s the last days of the 2008
parent fractal:
Here?s the thought. If you count
backwards exactly one Armstrong interval of 1.075 years (per ?It?s
Just Time? page 25) from today, March 26, 2009, you get February 27,
2008. That is point 4 e on the above chart. That implies
Robert?s chart that calls for the following end of the child fractal
is occurring today, March 26, 2009..
Now, do one more little test. I?m
suggesting the mythical wave 5 ends on April 16, 2009 which is
Armstrong?s PEI date. Now, subtract 1.075 years from April 16,
2009 and you get March 19, 2008. Allowing 1 day for rounding
(1.075 years is 392.375 days), then you?re within 1 days of the end
of the parent fractal?s wave or point 5 of 5 on the first
chart.
One last thing. March 26, 2009 is a McHugh
Phi change in trend date. Except for his March 13, 2009 Phi
date, they have been very accurate over the course of this
bear.
Just some thoughts in case it, as improbable as
it is, does
occur.
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