Re: [RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] The Great Bear has just begun

Let's see...................On 12/13/07 I said the following:

"PS - IMO, we've seen nothing yet! Wait until you see all those option ARM's implode! I'll be conservative and say that at least 75% of those loans were done because the "fake" payment was the only way many were able to get into a home (CA!!!). Fast forward 1-2 yrs later..............prices of homes down 10-20%, mortgage balance up 10-15% due to negative amortization, original loan was already @ a 90% LTV/CLTV and no material change in family income. As Phil Rizzuto used to say "Holy Cow"!!"

So to answer your question:

Now what banks did the most Option ARM loans:

IndyMac - 12/13 - 6.64 - Today - Gone

Countrywide - Today - You know the B of A story.

WAMU - 12/13 - 16.06 - Today - 4.87

Downey Savings - 12/13 - 32.98 - Today - 2.11

World (Wachovia) - 12/13 - 40.19 - Today - 17.11

BankUnited - 12/13 - 7.73 - Today - 1.27

Who didn't do ONE Option ARM loan:

Chase - 12/13 - 45.76 - Today - 40.14

Wells Fargo - 12/13 - 30.56 - Today - 30.18

B of A (prior to Countrywide buyout) - 12/13 - 43.05 - Today - 32.62

I'd say Downey Savings and BankUnited will be next to go. WAMU and Wachovia are just to big! Though WAMU's price is pretty telling!

My money's on Chase!! HELOC's are their main thorn right now.

Not TA but in my line of work : >)

Lenny

In a message dated 8/4/2008 7:18:27 P.M. Eastern Daylight Time, caroline@xxxxxxxxxxx writes:

The important question of course being: How do we trade it?

------------------------------------------------------------------------
1a. Re: Re[2]: [RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] The Great Bear has just begun
Posted by: "rosow@xxxxxxx" rosow@xxxxxxx lbrosow
Date: Sun Aug 3, 2008 6:06 pm ((PDT))

Go back in the archives and see what I said regarding CA and all their
option ARM loans. This has only just begun for that State. I said it
before and
I'll say it again. "holy cow" for that State!!

Lenny

In a message dated 8/3/2008 10:20:09 A.M. Eastern Daylight Time,
Code2@xxxxxxx writes:

> 2. The # of mortgages in california that are more than 30 days
> behind in payments is 4%. Not the 21% you seem to have made up out
> of thin air (just what source do you claim to cite for that
> anyway?). That 4% is about 4 times "normal" but even that is more
> than the number in actual foreclosure.

That figure sound more accurate. A RealtyTrac article July 25 said
that foreclosure proceedings (the next step after default) commenced
on one in every 65 households in California during the second quarter.
That's 1.5%, but remember that that's just foreclosures commenced
during April to June.

The whole article is at
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=4891&accnt=64847

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