Re: [RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] The Great Bear has just begun

[hostmaster <hostmaster@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>]

Really now Ben, I hope the technical trading analysis you post is more
accurate and better researched then this nonsense you are tossing about
regarding the State of California's liquidity.  Its really sad to
see such plain wrong info being bantered about and even when called on it
instead of research and information the fall back is wild
guessing.

1. California property tax revenues primarily fund county and city
programs .. largest going to schools, county hospital system, jail system
and local law enforcement along with misc other.  Most Statewide
programs and State employees are funded by sales tax and fees. 

2. The # of mortgages in california that are more than 30 days behind in
payments is 4%.  Not the 21% you seem to have made up out of thin
air (just what source do you claim to cite for that anyway?). That 4% is
about 4 times "normal" but even that is more than the number in
actual foreclosure. 

3. Even property tax issues are somewhat abated since California under
propostion 13 has been unable to raise property taxes except upon sale to
new owners for decades.  In fact, property tax revenues to the state
of california have continued to INCREASE right up thru last week (and
still continue to do so since foreclosures get re-assessed also with the
bank being the new owner and its still a move up in valuation for any
property that has not turned in the past 4 years or more on
average).  Yes Chicken Little, Revenues are up, Home prices are
still above where they were 4 years ago.  Payroll is way way down
due to the cuts via layoffs and minimum wage conversion.  

The bottom line, if anyone is planning going short on Calif State Bonds
due to the current mortgage issues and economic outlook you will get
severly burned.  Have at it. 

For the rest of you who are more rooted to reality, remember that
prejudice is a great time saver as Ben has now illustrated. It allows one
to form an opinion without taking the time to gather the facts.  It
is not a good investment tool however.

Boater805
At 06:28 PM 8/2/2008, you wrote:

with 21% of homes  in foreclousure in state of california
and banks like  countrywide   who do not hold escrow for  local tax
how  would  state get revenues  to pay their employees?
Ben

----- Original Message -----

From: hostmaster

To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Sent: Saturday, August 02, 2008 7:54 PM

Subject: Re: [RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] The Great Bear has just begun

I wish we could credit it to the govenor but it is the operation of law.  Our govenator continues to be a disappointment. 

As to Ben's forecast of possible public debt default, the State Controller says that is not going to happen if a budget is passed in the next several months. Large as the State of California debt service is, the payroll load is far far far larger and those savings insure adequate liquidity to continue making debt payments.

Boater8095

At 02:12 PM 8/2/2008, you wrote:

I take it as good news that California is showing a little fiscal responsibility and tring to cut expenses as they face lower tax revenues.  Had they done nothing and begun to face defaults then *that* would be *bad* news indeed. 

 

Bob

 

On 8/2/08, Ben <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx > wrote:

everything is REALLY bad

all employees of california state recieved a letter telling them not to come to work monday

and, if they do

they only get min wage!!!

mkt should come hard down with this news

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