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The SwingMachine was designed as a research
tool to help understand the historic behavior of
so called cycles.
SM picks pivots with a bit different but similar
method than ZigZag but basically arrives at the
same solution.
SM displays a projection of EVERY downgoing
wave (cycle) since 1921 in the DJIA. An
examination
of the attached will tell you just how FIXED are
the cycles.
Clyde
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Clyde Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)
SYTECH
Corporation email: clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx
7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540
Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092
Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com
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----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, June 20, 2008 1:16 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] cycle question
At 01:35 PM 6/20/2008, you wrote:
this 55 days picks change in trend better than 80% of the
time
When in doubt, measure...
:-)
I used a zig zag indicator to find tops and bottoms as in the
attached chart of the SPX Index.
I had it count the daily bars:
From this Top to the last Bottom (Column A) and to the
last Top (Column B), and
From this Bottom to the last Top
(Column A) and to the last Bottom (Column B).
Below are the numbers for
20 years.
I see a lot of variation...
Bob
Fulks
Date
Event A
B
11/16/1988 Bot
17 60
02/08/1989
Top 57
74
02/27/1989 Bot
12 69
10/10/1989
Top 157
169
10/16/1989 Bot
4 161
01/03/1990
Top 54
58
01/30/1990 Bot
19 73
04/16/1990
Top 52
71
04/30/1990 Bot
10 62
06/05/1990
Top 25
35
06/27/1990 Bot
16 41
07/16/1990
Top 12
28
10/11/1990 Bot
62 74
12/06/1990
Top 39
101
01/14/1991 Bot
25 64
04/17/1991
Top 65
90
05/15/1991 Bot
20 85
05/31/1991
Top 11
31
06/28/1991 Bot
20 31
09/03/1991
Top 45
65
10/10/1991 Bot
27 72
11/14/1991
Top 25
52
12/02/1991 Bot
11 36
01/15/1992
Top 30
41
04/08/1992 Bot
59 89
05/11/1992
Top 22
81
06/22/1992 Bot
29 51
08/04/1992
Top 30
59
08/25/1992 Bot
15 45
09/14/1992
Top 13
28
10/05/1992 Bot
15 28
12/29/1992
Top 59
74
01/08/1993 Bot
7 66
03/11/1993
Top 43
50
04/26/1993 Bot
31 74
06/01/1993
Top 25
56
07/07/1993 Bot
25 50
09/01/1993
Top 40
65
09/21/1993 Bot
13 53
10/15/1993
Top 18
31
11/05/1993 Bot
15 33
01/31/1994
Top 59
74
04/04/1994 Bot
43 102
06/15/1994
Top 50
93
06/27/1994 Bot
8 58
08/31/1994
Top 46
54
10/05/1994 Bot
24 70
10/31/1994
Top 18
42
12/09/1994 Bot
28 46
01/04/1996
Top 269
297
01/10/1996 Bot
4 273
02/13/1996
Top 24
28
04/11/1996 Bot
40 64
05/23/1996
Top 30
70
07/16/1996 Bot
36 66
11/26/1996
Top 94
130
12/17/1996 Bot
14 108
02/19/1997
Top 43
57
04/14/1997 Bot
37 80
08/07/1997
Top 81
118
08/18/1997 Bot
7 88
10/08/1997
Top 36
43
10/28/1997 Bot
14 50
12/05/1997
Top 27
41
01/12/1998 Bot
24 51
04/22/1998
Top 69
93
05/28/1998 Bot
25 94
07/20/1998
Top 36
61
10/08/1998 Bot
57 93
05/13/1999
Top 149
206
05/27/1999 Bot
10 159
07/19/1999
Top 35
45
08/10/1999 Bot
16 51
08/25/1999
Top 11
27
10/18/1999 Bot
37 48
01/03/2000
Top 53
90
02/28/2000 Bot
38 91
03/24/2000
Top 19
57
04/14/2000 Bot
15 34
07/17/2000
Top 63
78
07/28/2000 Bot
9 72
09/01/2000
Top 25
34
12/21/2000 Bot
77 102
01/31/2001
Top 26
103
03/22/2001 Bot
35 61
05/22/2001
Top 42
77
09/21/2001 Bot
81 123
01/07/2002
Top 73
154
02/20/2002 Bot
30 103
03/19/2002
Top 19
49
07/24/2002 Bot
88 107
08/22/2002
Top 21
109
10/10/2002 Bot
34 55
12/02/2002
Top 36
70
03/12/2003 Bot
68 104
07/14/2003
Top 85
153
08/06/2003 Bot
17 102
03/05/2004
Top 146
163
03/24/2004 Bot
13 159
04/05/2004
Top 8
21
05/12/2004 Bot
26 34
06/24/2004
Top 29
55
08/13/2004 Bot
35 64
10/06/2004
Top 37
72
10/25/2004 Bot
13 50
01/03/2005
Top 48
61
01/24/2005 Bot
14 62
03/07/2005
Top 29
43
04/20/2005 Bot
31 60
08/03/2005
Top 73
104
08/30/2005 Bot
19 92
09/09/2005
Top 7
26
10/13/2005 Bot
24 31
05/08/2006
Top 141
165
06/14/2006 Bot
26 167
02/22/2007
Top 173
199
03/14/2007 Bot
14 187
06/01/2007
Top 55
69
06/27/2007 Bot
18 73
07/16/2007
Top 12
30
08/16/2007 Bot
23 35
10/11/2007
Top 39
62
11/26/2007 Bot
31 70
12/11/2007
Top 11
42
01/23/2008 Bot
28 39
02/01/2008
Top 7
35
03/17/2008 Bot
30 37
05/19/2008
Top 44
74
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