Jim,
I think that it’s easy to fall into
this black pit of worries. I’m sure we can all recall from our history
books times when events like those you listed have previously occurred, or came
perilously close to occurring. But I find I have to be careful about not
assuming that just because a writer attempts to link all the “Black Swans”
together into one great conflagration, that history can or will actually unfold
in this way. Like the markets, there are forces that tend to “scatter”
these collections of specific sub-events, thereby preventing the worst scenarios
based on a sum of all fears. When we look at events like 9/11, it reminds me
that when a crisis hits, we are capable of galvanizing and doing something about
it. The bigger the crisis, the more focused people become, the more aligned with
a solution that helps to stop these events from happening again. While it can
be argued whether these solutions (whether eavesdropping on every email out
there, or interning all Japanese/Americans) are “good” or “evil”,
I believe that the real point is that, when push comes to shove, something
tends to get done, and in a representative democracy like ours, end-of-society crises
tend to be averted, even if imperfectly. I can see a future (perhaps the next
generation) when kids not unlike ourselves in the 60’s said “We’re
not going to take it…” Between that and the media, and the
internet, it’s hard (but I won’t rule out impossible) to imagine ourselves
as a society being “duped” into something too very far from what we
know to be right. It’s my position that since the days of Kennedy’s
“Camelot”, what we’ve lost is innocence, not intelligence,
and that’s a good thing.
The fact that you posted your thoughts is
in itself proof of the self-corrective nature of what I’m saying.
Happy Holidays to you all as well.
Gene Pope
From:
Sent: Thursday, December 20, 2007
12:23 PM
To:
Subject: [RT] The Fourth Turning
The scenarios below were published in 1997 in the book
"The Fourth Turning - An American Prophecy". While the book offers
these as only examples of possibilities leading to the unraveling of the social
fabric, it is clear from the remarkable similarity with current events
that we are truly in The Fourth Turning as forecast by the book. I urge all of
you to read this book and understand the potential impact of these tumultuous
times on our personal welfare. You might also investigate the work of Harry S.
Dent (www.HSDent.com) on demographic
projections and their economic impact.
Most of us have a very narrow view of our environment and
seldom step back to try to see the broader picture. These publications provide
us with a broader view.
SCENARIOS FOR CRISIS:
(1) "Beset by a fiscal crisis, a state lays claim to
its residents' federal tax monies. Declaring this an act of session. the
president obtains a federal injunction. The governor refuses to back down.
Federal marshals enforce the court order. Similar tax rebellions soaring up in
other states. Treasury bill auctions are suspended. Militia violence breaks
out. Cyberterrorists destroy IRS databases.
(2) "A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and
announces it possess portable nuclear weapons. The
(3) "An impasse over the federal
budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back
down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares
emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices
plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses
to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall street panics."
(4) "The Center for Disease Control and Prevention
announces the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely
populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts a mandatory quarantine measures.
The president orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around
unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias.
Calls mount for the president to declare martial law."
(5) "Growing anarchy throughout the former Soviet
republics prompts
I wish each and everyone of you a happy holiday and
prosperous New Year.
Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading
PivotTrader.
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