RE: [RT] The Fourth Turning, RealTraders Email List Archive

Jim,

I think that it’s easy to fall into this black pit of worries. I’m sure we can all recall from our history books times when events like those you listed have previously occurred, or came perilously close to occurring. But I find I have to be careful about not assuming that just because a writer attempts to link all the “Black Swans” together into one great conflagration, that history can or will actually unfold in this way. Like the markets, there are forces that tend to “scatter” these collections of specific sub-events, thereby preventing the worst scenarios based on a sum of all fears. When we look at events like 9/11, it reminds me that when a crisis hits, we are capable of galvanizing and doing something about it. The bigger the crisis, the more focused people become, the more aligned with a solution that helps to stop these events from happening again. While it can be argued whether these solutions (whether eavesdropping on every email out there, or interning all Japanese/Americans) are “good” or “evil”, I believe that the real point is that, when push comes to shove, something tends to get done, and in a representative democracy like ours, end-of-society crises tend to be averted, even if imperfectly. I can see a future (perhaps the next generation) when kids not unlike ourselves in the 60’s said “We’re not going to take it…” Between that and the media, and the internet, it’s hard (but I won’t rule out impossible) to imagine ourselves as a society being “duped” into something too very far from what we know to be right. It’s my position that since the days of Kennedy’s “Camelot”, what we’ve lost is innocence, not intelligence, and that’s a good thing.

The fact that you posted your thoughts is in itself proof of the self-corrective nature of what I’m saying.

Happy Holidays to you all as well.

Gene Pope

From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of Jim White
Sent: Thursday, December 20, 2007 12:23 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [RT] The Fourth Turning

The scenarios below were published in 1997 in the book "The Fourth Turning - An American Prophecy". While the book offers these as only examples of possibilities leading to the unraveling of the social fabric, it is clear from the remarkable similarity with current events that we are truly in The Fourth Turning as forecast by the book. I urge all of you to read this book and understand the potential impact of these tumultuous times on our personal welfare. You might also investigate the work of Harry S. Dent (www.HSDent.com) on demographic projections and their economic impact.

Most of us have a very narrow view of our environment and seldom step back to try to see the broader picture. These publications provide us with a broader view.

SCENARIOS FOR CRISIS:

(1) "Beset by a fiscal crisis, a state lays claim to its residents' federal tax monies. Declaring this an act of session. the president obtains a federal injunction. The governor refuses to back down. Federal marshals enforce the court order. Similar tax rebellions soaring up in other states. Treasury bill auctions are suspended. Militia violence breaks out. Cyberterrorists destroy IRS databases. U.S. special forces are put on alert. Demands issue for a new Constitutional Convention"

(2) "A global terrorist group blows up an aircraft and announces it possess portable nuclear weapons. The United States and its allies launch a preemptive strike. The terrorists threaten to retaliate against an American city. Congress declares war and authorizes unlimited house-to-house searches. Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes. A nationwide strike is declared. Foreign capital flees the U.S."

(3) "An impasse over the federal budget reaches a stalemate. The president and Congress both refuse to back down, triggering a near-total government shutdown. The president declares emergency powers. Congress rescinds his authority. Dollar and bond prices plummet. The president threatens to stop Social Security checks. Congress refuses to raise the debt ceiling. Default looms. Wall street panics."

(4) "The Center for Disease Control and Prevention announces the spread of a new communicable virus. The disease reaches densely populated areas, killing some. Congress enacts a mandatory quarantine measures. The president orders the National Guard to throw prophylactic cordons around unsafe neighborhoods. Mayors resist. Urban gangs battle suburban militias. Calls mount for the president to declare martial law."

(5) "Growing anarchy throughout the former Soviet republics prompts Russia to conduct training exercises around its borders. Lithuania erupts in civil war. Negotiations break down. UP.SO diplomats are captured and publicly taunted. The president airlifts troops to rescue them and orders ships into the Black Sea. Iran declares its alliance with Russia. Gold and oil prices soar. Congress debates restoring the draft."

I wish each and everyone of you a happy holiday and prosperous New Year.

Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading Co.
PivotTrader.com

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