RE: [RT] Trading Diary: False Breaks Warn Of A Market Top, RealTraders Email List Archive

Good point Bob, but this place caters to a younger crowd, which is what gets me worried. It could of course be a localized phenomenon, but Singer Island is near Palm Beach and West Palm. Not exactly a lack of money here, but we’re talking about a tavern not catered to by wealthy people, or anywhere neat that. We’re talking very straight ahead blue collar types, or young people just starting out careers. And I can assure you , I can tell the difference between a tourist who is “lying” and a local. The locals cheer if you sing country. The tourists cheer if you sing Bon Jovi or more urban stuff. At any rate, the real point of my story was the changes over time, not whether I have my demographics perfectly in line.

Gene

From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of BobsKC
Sent: Monday, December 10, 2007 1:45 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Trading Diary: False Breaks Warn Of A Market Top

I don't know where Singer Island is but I live on Sanibel Island and it is a very hot Florida destination. I have noticed for years that the tourist season is beginning later and lasting later than in the past. I went to my favorite bar Friday night and it was packed with locals. This is saying something in a community made up of mostly retired folks with an average age of something around 70. Many, most, of these people no longer drink due to doctor's advice and yet the popular local bar was very busy. (Once season begins, most of the people in that bar will be tourists and the locals stay home).

The other thing is that a large percentage of the population in Florida are older people who may no longer drink at all and without the tourists, few bars would survive here. (This is probably not true on Miami Beach because it's a tourist stop year round).

Bottom line is that you may, in the past, have been seeing a lot of tourist traffic who you assumed were locals and you may not have been aware of the changing tourist arrival and departure times. If they were truly locals, more of them than not have enough money that they could care less about the cost of gasoline or interest rates because they don't owe anyone, anything.

At least this is a possibility

Bob

At 08:18 AM 12/10/2007, you wrote:

Hello All,

For what its worth, I just came back from my yearly solo week in Florida, Singer Island to be exact. I like to just go and detox, hang out at local establishments, stick my feet in the ocean and clear my mind, while staying as far away from the upper end hang outs as possible. My observations were a little disquieting and Id like to share them with you.

The taverns I like to hang out in have always been among the most popular, usually crowded to capacity on any weekend night, including Sunday, and still at least half-full on a Wednesday. One of them happens to be have one of the greatest Karaoke stages Ive ever seen. Very elaborate stage with very high-end speakers and mics and even lighting. Very popular DJ, people coming from 100 miles away to get there. This is very a very locals oriented place. Ive been going there now every year at the same time since 1999.

Last year, it started to change, fewer people, but still a good time. But this year, I was in total shock at what I saw. I came in first on a Wednesday, and Mel, the DJ Ive known for years, tells me Gene, I think I gotta hang it up soon. Theres no traffic anymore. My nightly fees are being cut. Theyve cut out Sundays and it looks like Wednesday is going too. I cant live like this. He was right about the traffic. The place was like an empty bowling alley. I had to wait an hour past the normal start time just to get one more singer in the joint.

Then on Friday night, I returned and it was the same thing, perhaps 10% of the normal crowd size for a Friday. Then came Saturday. I go to pull into the parking lot at the regular time, and there were no cars around AT ALL except the employees. I was stunned. I went in, and Ive never seen so few people in that bar, ever, on any night, in all these years. It was worse than the previous Wednesday, and you never see that. The jukebox, which is usually cranking until the Karaoke starts, was silent. The employees and bartenders looks rattled and scared, roaming around aimlessly.

>From my conversations with them, they told me the same story over and over. Nobody has any money to go out and have a good time anymore (remember, this is a very local joint, not some here today, gone tomorrow tourist hang out). Their customers all tell the same story, that gas is too expensive, food is too expensive, and their mortgages are swallowing up all their money. They cant afford to go out.

This particular bar is also one of the rare ones in the area that closes at 5 AM, therefore, it becomes a bartenders bar after all the other places close up at 2 or 3 AM. They tell me that this crowd is gone as well. The other bartenders and waitresss business is so bad, they have no tips, therefore no money to use after quitting time. So this is not just the tale of some dump that fell under the radar. This IS the place to go around these parts. I think its a hell of a barometer, one that is not being picked up on in the press.

So what is this saying? If the majority of the populace cannot afford to go out for a good time anymore, and/or theres no tourists coming around, are we already in recession and why arent we hearing more about this? Even 9/11 or the hurricanes didnt affect business this much. What I saw was truly outside the bell curve. Where else is this happening? These people are truly frightened for their livelihoods.

This may just be a localized phenom, but I wonder about that. To quote my friend Mel, People I know, older couples up north tell me they cant afford to come down here anymore. They got too much to worry about back up north.

One more Mel quote: My friends that work at local Publix supermarkets say the average ticket per customer is way down, as if theyre getting very selective in what theyre buying.

Just one mans observations. Anybody else out there have any anecdotal evidence?

Gene

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