Actually if you take a look at euribor curve you will see a definite
inversion over the last trading days. The 1m rate is greater than 12m
one, and so on. The ECB is still trying to modify the short term rates using
its tools but no real effect has been created.
I do not agree with those views that give the market up for december and
january. The latest rally is at the moment a 50% of the down swing. We should
see lower price at the monday's open.
Bruce Larson <bondo92677@xxxxxxcom>
wrote:
money supply is a function of lending - more loans
inceases money
supply explonentially through the money
mulitplier effect we all learned
in econ 101. Right
now, commercial paper is dead, mortgage lending
is
dead, and if you see how libor rates have risen over
the past 4
weeks, even banks are relunctant to lend to
each other.
--- Ben
<
profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
wrote:
> Sender:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com>
On-Behalf-Of:
profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
Subject: [RT] Fw: 12/1 Report
> Message-Id:
>
<001a01c83451$
28ccb9c0$0201a8c0@yourn3ty7athd5>
>
Recipient: AJacobson@xxxxcom
> >
To: "Elizabeth (E-mail)"
<urania@xxxxxxxxxatt.net>,
>
"Vincent DONOVAN (E-mail)"
> <vdonovan@xxxxxxxxxxnet>,
<panda2222@xxxxxxxxx.net>
>
CC: <e-mini_traders_anon@xxxxxxxxxxx.com>,
>
<realtraders@yahoogroups.com>,
>
<astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxs.com>
>
From: Ben <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
>
Date: Sat, 1 Dec 2007 14:34:15 -0500
> Subject: [RT] Fw: 12/1
Report
>
> look at the chart of money supply
>
>
Bernanky is saying one think to public ,,but in
> reality ,supply LESS
liqidity to banks,
> maybe this is why citi had to go elsewere for
funds,
> this does not look good for market
> Ben
> -----
Original Message -----
> From: Mike Burk ; Mike Burk
> To:
Mike Burk
> Sent: Saturday, December 01, 2007 9:32 AM
>
Subject: 12/1 Report
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Money supply
>
>
This M2 money supply chart has been provided by
> Gordon
Harms.
>
>
>
>
> Mutual Fund
>
Compliance issues demand that I not mention the
> mutual fund that I
manage by name or symbol in this
> letter.
>
>
>
> To see a current chart of the fund go to:
>
>
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=APHAX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
>
>
>
> For information about the fund go to:
> http://www.thealphafunds.com/index.htm
>
> The fund now has service class shares available.
>
>
>
> December
>
> December has been one of the
better months for the
> market.
>
>
>
>
Since 1928 the SPX has been up 75% of the time in
> December with an
average gain of 1.4%. During the
> 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle
the performance
> has been even better up 84% of the time with
an
> average gain of 2.3%.
>
>
>
> The OTC
has been a little more volatile, it has been
> up 61% of the time in
December with an average gain
> of 1.5% and during the 3rd year of the
Presidential
> Cycle up 73% of the time with an average gain
of
> 4.9%. The average was helped noticeably by a 21.3%
> gain
in 1999.
>
>
>
> The charts below show the daily
averages for
> December for all years and for the 3rd year of
the
> Presidential Cycle. The average month has 21
> trading
days and the charts have been calculated by
> averaging the daily
return for the first 11 trading
> days and the last 10. If the month
had more than 21
> trading days some of the days in the middle
were
> ignored and if it had less than 21 trading days some
> of
the days in the middle were counted twice.
> Dashed vertical lines
have been drawn after the 1st
> trading day and at 5 day intervals
after that. A
> solid vertical line has been drawn on the 11th
>
trading day, the dividing point.
>
>
>
> The 1st
chart shows the OTC average for all years in
> blue and the average
for the 3rd year of the
> Presidential Cycle in green.
>
>
>
>
> The next chart is similar to the one
above except it
> uses SPX data.
>
>
>
>
> Conclusion
> The market is at the beginning of an up move
that
> should last a couple months.
>
> I expect the
major indices to be higher on Friday
> December 7 than they were on
Friday November 30.
>
> This report is free to anyone who wants
it, so
> please tell your friends.
> They can sign up at:
> http://alphaim.net/signup.html
>
> If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the
> subject
line.
>
> Last weeks negative forecast was a miss.
>
> Thank you,
> Mike Burk
> YTD W18/L18/T12
>
> Disclaimer: Mike Burk is an employee and principal
> of Alpha
Investment Management (Alpha) a registered
> investment advisor.
Charts and figures presented
> herein are believed to be reliable but
we cannot
> attest to their accuracy. Recent (last 10-15 yrs.)
>
data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com),
> FastTrack
(fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and
> the Wall Street
Journal (wsj.com). Historical data
> is from Barron's and ISI price
books. The views
> expressed are provided for information purposes
only
> and should not be construed in any way as investment
>
advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may
> change without
notice.
>
> You may reproduce these letters provided you
include
> a citation along with a link to the subscription
>
page: http://alphaim.net/signup.html
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
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