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RE: [RT] Fw: 12/1 Report



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Sender: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
On-Behalf-Of: marksimms@xxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Fw: 12/1 Report
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Recipient: AJacobson@xxxxxxx


 
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--- Begin Message ---

Yeah but did you see the M2 move ABOVE the long term regression line in Dec of last year ....
and also notice the violent reversals in the ROC of the M2 ?
The reversals coincide with up-moves in the equity markets.
 


From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com [mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ben
Sent: Saturday, December 01, 2007 2:34 PM
To: Elizabeth (E-mail); Vincent DONOVAN (E-mail); panda2222@xxxxxxxxx.net
Cc: e-mini_traders_anon@xxxxxxxxxxx.com; realtraders@yahoogroups.com; astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxs.com
Subject: [RT] Fw: 12/1 Report

look at the chart of money supply
 
Bernanky is saying one think  to public ,,but in reality ,supply LESS  liqidity to banks,
maybe this is why citi had to go elsewere for funds,
this does not look good for market 
Ben
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, December 01, 2007 9:32 AM
Subject: 12/1 Report

 

Money supply

This M2 money supply chart has been provided by Gordon Harms.

Mutual Fund
Compliance issues demand that I not mention the mutual fund that I manage by name or symbol in this letter.

To see a current chart of the fund go to:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=APHAX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

For information about the fund go to: http://www.thealphafunds.com/index.htm

The fund now has service class shares available.

December

December has been one of the better months for the market.

Since 1928 the SPX has been up 75% of the time in December with an average gain of 1.4%.  During the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle the performance has been even better up 84% of the time with an average gain of 2.3%.

The OTC has been a little more volatile, it has been up 61% of the time in December with an average gain of 1.5% and during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle up 73% of the time with an average gain of 4.9%.  The average was helped noticeably by a 21.3% gain in 1999.

The charts below show the daily averages for December for all years and for the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle.  The average month has 21 trading days and the charts have been calculated by averaging the daily return for the first 11 trading days and the last 10.  If the month had more than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle were ignored and if it had less than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle were counted twice.  Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the 1st trading day and at 5 day intervals after that.  A solid vertical line has been drawn on the 11th trading day, the dividing point.

The 1st chart shows the OTC average for all years in blue and the average for the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle in green.

The next chart is similar to the one above except it uses SPX data.

Conclusion
The market is at the beginning of an up move that should last a couple months.

I expect the major indices to be higher on Friday December 7 than they were on Friday November 30.

This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at:
http://alphaim.net/signup.html

If it is not for you, reply with REMOVE in the subject line.

Last weeks negative forecast was a miss.

Thank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W18/L18/T
12

Disclaimer: Mike Burk is an employee and principal of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy.  Recent (last 10-15 yrs.) data has been supplied by CSI (csidata.com), FastTrack (fasttrack.net), Quotes Plus (qp2.com) and the Wall Street Journal (wsj.com).  Historical data is from Barron’s and ISI price books.  The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice.  Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice.

You may reproduce these letters provided you include a citation along with a link to the subscription page: http://alphaim.net/signup.html

 


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