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We still hear a lot of talk about "capitulation" but I'm not so
sure that is still a factor in the markets. I'll grant you that it
used to be a factor but over the past several years, it doesn't seem to
play such an important role and this may be due to people wanting to jump
ahead of the exact bottom to beat their fellow traders back into the
market. Nearly all the advisors are waving caution flags now and
that could well be a sign that the worst is over. They are
inventing reasons for a bearish viewpoint such as the secondary mortgage
problems and a soft housing market which they claim will tighten money
supplies. That's a long reach at best and one I don't buy but one
has to find some actual facts to justify his/her opinions.
Meanwhile, I'm holding more than 50% cash and trying to be nimble for
such an old guy. Good luck to all next week.
Bob
At 01:51 PM 3/2/2007 -0800, you wrote:
So far
the low and perhaps bottom was put in on 3/1 as forecast however today's
action did nothing to indicate a reversal is underway. All major indices
put in inside days today and gave weak buy signals however the change in
trend may be a sideways consolidation instead of a bounce upward. The
next Near Impulse date is 3/9 and could be another leg down if we move
sideways into that date. We will have to wait for early week action to
get a better feel for what's next.
Regards,
Jim
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