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Re: [RT] ira on natural gas?

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Price didn't hit 6.10, came close but no cigar, and price fell again.  A new entry Price would have to be established for tomorrow.  There appears to be continued downside pressure upon price. 
 
I think here is a good time to explain again what I am saying about CHK. CHK is in a major up move with a projected target of 49+.  Could you be long here?  Yes.  Would I personally be long here?  No.  My reasons are technical, not fundamental.  I have CHK in a retracement of the 35.50 high and it doen't appear to be over yet.  For the major up move to be over 26 has to be taken out on a down move. I have price objectives at various levels down to 26.12.  You will note that this price does not void the up move. 
 
Trend is a function of the trader and the time frames and cycles he/she select to trade.  If you are a very long term trader you should be long this stock with a stop at 26.  Right now about a 3 dollar risk for a possible 20 dollar reward.  In my calculations there is a 60% probability of the target price of 49 being reached.  There is also a 60% probability that price can reach 27 1/8 before that happens.
 
My position is that I would not get long until price told me that it was going higher.  It hasn't done that yet according to the system that I use.  Right now I have support at 28.50 and another short term target at 28- 28 1/8. 
 
Fundamentals or technical, a trader should do what feels right to them and is profitable.  Both conditions have to exit in order to be a success in this business.
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: c.l
Sent: Tuesday, July 18, 2006 3:36 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] ira on natural gas?

many thanks for this fast answer.
at least your weekly and daily upside targets match with my medianlines.
but good to know that you don't see upside potential yet.
 
thanks carsten
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira
Sent: Tuesday, July 18, 2006 9:37 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] ira on natural gas?

AS you are looking at multiple charts I will look at it that way also.  there is nothing on the weekly that says higher at the moment. There is 5.50 support there but price would have to hit 6.65 for any chance of a rally.  If that price is hit you could look for 7.85 and then 9.00.
 
The daily doesn't show any upside potential at this time I have support at 5.55 with a target price of 5.24.  If 5.24 is broken you can look at 5.00 support and a target of 4.55. There is still downside pressure on price here on the daily.
 
Your best hope for a rally right now would be the 60 min chart.  If the 5.75 low holds price would have to hit 6.10 to be a buy and then you could expect resistance at 6.30 and if there is some momentum the move you could get to 6.52.  This still doesn't trigger the by on the weekly chart. Any up move here is fighting some major downside pressure at this time. 
 
some mild upside pressure is starting to show on the monthly but for a major upside move to start price would have to hit 9.00. Now 6 to 9 is a nice trading range without generating a major buying opportunity.
 
This doesn't bode well for CHK.  If this 28.75 support doesn't hold then comes 28, 27 and if 26.5 doesn't hold, bingo 25 and 22.  There is currently some downside pressure here, but there appears to be some good support above the 26.50 level.
 
I never try to guess at tops and bottoms.  When I would get an entry price, then I would trade.
 
Hope that this helps.  Once again, just one mans opinion. Let us see how this one turns out.  Ira.
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: c.l
Sent: Monday, July 17, 2006 11:16 PM
Subject: [RT] ira on natural gas?

ira,
 
it would be great if you could find time to share your opinion on natural gas.
i'm looking for a breakout from the big wedge, to see in the weekly and daily chart.
on the weekly chart you can see also multiple divergences ( on mostly any indicator i guess).
 
of course anyone is encouraged to share his opinion for a discussion
thanks
carsten
 

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