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Bob:
I have no argument with you about the fundamentals
of the situation. I also look at fundamentals even though I don't trade
them. I look at supply and demand factors, economic factors such as crop
reports, weather reports, insider trading reports, specialist positions,
short report, production numbers, inflation, deflation, exporting of jobs,
and wage increases, etc. . What used to be called the Swiss Bankers
Secrets to Financial Wealth.
I found that technical trading allowed me to take
advantage of the fundamentals without trying to guess at tops or bottoms.
I would rather have a high probability of a top or bottom being in place before
committing funds to a position.
Every individual is different and each has a
different style of trading. Even those using the same system to
trade. I just offered one mans opinion and state such. If what I
state comes to pass or not can only be seen afterwards. As you know
today's short is tomorrows long and that those stocks that are out of favor
today are tomorrows winners. You could be 100% correct in your assumptions
and may your trades be profitable. My only question was as to
timing. Sometimes it is not the facts but the perception that makes things
move.
Good luck and good trading. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Tuesday, July 18, 2006 10:26
AM
Subject: Re: [SPAM] [RT] ira on natural
gas?
Ira gave you a wonderful technical report and opinion based on price action
but there is another side to the question and that is, of course, the
fundamentals.
The country is sweltering under intense heat right
now and many of the large air conditioning systems run on natural gas.
How much has been used will be known at the next reserve statement but to
think reserves will be even higher or the same flies in the face of common
sense. Everyone knows that hurricanes are a threat to natural gas
supplies. Some of the Gulf sites have never resumed production after
Wilma and Katrina. The most dangerous hurricane months in terms of
quantity and intensity are August and September so we are getting close.
Being short gas could get expensive in a rush if a storm moves into the
area.
So, whether it's price objectives/triggers being met or
weather reports, there are no guarantees but the choice of placing your money
on tech issues or fundamental issues is always yours and which ever way you
choose, I wish you well.
Bob
At 01:16 AM 7/18/2006, you
wrote:
ira,
it would be great
if you could find time to share your opinion on natural gas.
i'm looking
for a breakout from the big wedge, to see in the weekly and daily
chart.
on the weekly chart you can see also multiple divergences ( on
mostly any indicator i guess).
of course anyone is encouraged to share his opinion for a
discussion
thanks
carsten
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