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If/when a hurricane moves into the Gulf this summer, there will be no
Elliot Wave or any other technical stat which will prevent this stock
from soaring. This company has sold most of their production at 10
which translates into earnings in the order of $3.60 per share and if it
hit 10 as you suggest is possible, that would be a PE of less than
3. The history you are looking at is largely based on oil and other
energy products at a fraction of what they are today and this firm is
growing via M & A activity. I can't base my investments on the
past any more than I can base my other life's decisions based on my past
or someone else's past. I base my investments on facts and I follow
the money. I know techs say their methods work and I respect each
person's ideas but mine have worked for me these past 30+ years and mine
are so simple. They are just common sense and fundamentals.
Good trading next week Norm.
Bob
At 02:28 AM 7/9/2006, you wrote:
Please see chart hopefully attached below. Nice paraboic top
at 40 is followed by approx. 13 dollar drop to circa 27.
Elliott Wave says consolidations are continuation patterns. In
orther words, since the market dropped before the consolidation, the
resolution should be to the down side. If the first drop of 13 was Wave
I, then CHK is now in
Wave II consolidation. Wave III should be the longest and strongest
move, typically about 1.618 times Wave I.
Wave I = 13 x 1.618 = 21, so subtract 21 from beginning of Wave III,
which could project to the 14 ? 10 area.
10 is was the top of the 2001 Wave I on the upside, which should be major
support.
Bottomline, if you are making money trading CHK from the
long side, it is because it is currently stuck in a Wave II
consolidation. I don?t know how long it will be in Wave II, but
this is a ticking time bomb, which when it goes off, this stock is
probably headed much lower. You will know its headed much lower if
it breaks thru the 24 area, which was the top of Wave III on the
upside. You can?t have overlapping waves on a primary trend.
Violating the 24 area would give overlapping waves and one more
indication that the primary trend is down.
Enjoy the trading range with one hand on the rip cord and a
plan to reverse to the short side.
Moral of this story: Holding on to your natural gas too long can be
dangerous.
Regards,
Norm
.
![[]](jpg9Lck2gyWZm.jpg)
From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
[
mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of BobsKC
Sent: Sunday, May 21, 2006 2:25 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] post questions
Chesapeake Energy... Both of you are depending on charts and I'm
depending on earnings. The stock has come down along with all the
other natural gas issues because the product has come down so far.
Many do not seem to be aware that they have sold 70% of the next two
year's production at nearly twice what the spot price is today.
Throw in the CEO making a huge purchase in the open market and the
fundamentals can not be ignored. None of these things take into
account the approaching hurricane season and what will happen to the cash
price for natural gas once the first named storm moves into the
gulf. If those fundamentals are not enough, CHK currently sports an
8.4 PE It's been over $40 in the past 12 months and has a
10+% growth pattern.
So now, we have two views by technicians and one by a fundamental
trader. All views are interesting and no one is always right or
always wrong and neither are styles of investing.
Good luck next week everyone,
Bob
At 10:27 PM 5/20/2006 -0700, you wrote:
You see, Here is what I mean.
I assume that this is Chessy Energy that you are talking
about.
I have price in a range between 34 and 25.50. It
is in an up move until 25.50 is taken out and then this retracement has a
target price of 26. Right now it is at support from a longer
term move down at 28.75. You should get a retracement here and the
retracement shouldn't take out the 33 level. If 25.5 is taken
out the next target to the downside is 22.
This current retracement up should meet resistance at 30
dollars and hit a target of about 30.50. About a 1 point move from
here. If long I would exit there.
So you would be 100% invested when I am exiting 100% and
looking for a congestion area or further down retracement before another
up move would start.
We are both looking at the same chart and seeing different
things. Right now the major move is down and anything to the upside
is nothing to get excited about. The upside is tradable and can be
profitable. Like everything else in life, what is seen is in
the eyes of the beholder.
Once again, just one man's opinion. Ira.
PS. Finals on Monday and then a vacation. See
all when I return. Have a good week.
----- Original Message -----
From:
Ben
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 8:35 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] post questions
Hello Bob
I have attached a chart of the perfect stop loss
the levels were I would buy would be
at a close above 29.27 will buy 25% of position with
stop loss at 27.98
will add 25% to the position on a close above
29.78
buy full 100% of position at close above 30.68
sell 25% at profit at 31.10
sell another 25% at 31.89
sell rest at 32.36 or move stop loss to
31.1 with increasing that stop loss every time the
stock makes a higher hi
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: BobsKC
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, May 20, 2006 10:32 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] post questions
A kind and generous offer Ben.
It seems to me that traders try harder every year to get ahead of
historical swings and this time, it's the summer doldrums they are trying
to beat. So, instead of waiting for the dreaded summer months, they
are bailing now to beat the rush. The good news is even these
swings can be predicted if one just looks at the past performance of the
markets versus chronological changes and geo political events, etc.
Whatever the trend is, the traders will be trying to get ahead of that
trend.
The fundamentals are still good. P E's are in line and earnings are
growing. Inflation is low and controlled. Employment is
strong
while on the negative side, housing is falling off and some consumers are
being pinched with ARM's. I was 100% cash until late this week when
I began buying again and will continue to buy as it falls.
To get your kicked off with your offer, here is one for you. I
already own CHK at $28.80 and will buy more if it dips below that.
The CEO recently bought a large block and they have sold 70% of this
year's and next year's production at $10 so as natural gas falls below $6
cash, it means little to CHK in terms of earnings. What do you
think about it?
Best to all,
Bob
At 03:19 PM 5/20/2006 -0400, you wrote:
hello
you are about to make a trade?
before making it
post it
get a second opinion
the answer will be posted with charts to explain reasons why yes or
no
Ben
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