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The ARMs will kill them. The number of
foreclosures is going up at a rapid pace.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 5:58
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
IRA,
Not CA talking MN here but:
A number of
interesting articles in the "Homes Section" of local paper today
and
yesterday in Minneapolis on housing.
1. First, did it make sense to buy
a condo (incredible number of them have
been going up here for
years). My understanding that is the first real
estate sector to get
hurt?
2. An article on how "contingent buy offers" are now being
accepted, whereas
they would not even be considered before.
3.
Another article stating there are six homes going up for sale for every
one
being sold. This trend has been on the rise since around
mid-2005.
My concern has been for some time and continues to be the
number of people
who financed a purchase with 3, 4 or 5 year ARM's at the
then "artificially
low rates", which are about to rise to a higher level as
the period ends.
Don Ewers
----- Original Message -----
From:
"mr.ira" <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 1:30
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
It is interesting that everyone
seems concerned as to whether the market is
going up or down. Is it
the end of the bull and the start of the bear. Who
really
cares? Just trade it. that is what traders do. What are
the
fundamentals?
We are about to enter the down side of the 4 year
cycle with lows in 94, 98,
02 and therefore we should see one at the end of
06 or the start of 07 if
the economic cycle continues to hold true.
As to no inflation. The average
home price in my area for January and
February has been $1.1million. Of
course the same house in Texas
probably runs about $350,000. Health care,
insurance, etc.are going
up at a real inflationary rate. Everyone looks to
the governments
figures for inflation not realizing that they change the
components at
will. They say inflation is steady and yet the cost of living
keeps
rising.
Remember, it is not what is actually happening that makes the
markets move.
It is the perception of what should happen that causes the
price action. I
don't think anyone has the time to read all the
reports. Research all the
papers written or read all of the opinions
of various gurus and
prognosticators and still have time to trade.
The answer is the same as in
any simple crime drama. Follow the
money. That is basically what technical
analysis does.
I have
nothing that says lower right now, but I do have a major high target
of
over 15,000 with some major resistance just below the previous high
of
11,000+. Will it get to 15,000+ or will it stop at 11,360? I
really don't
care. If the chart says buy that is what you should do
and if the price
says sell then do that. Many times the charts tell
you to get out and do
nothing, but very few people ever listen to that
scenario.
Just one man's opinion. Ira.
----- Original
Message -----
From: BobsKC
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 7:42
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
Why do so many
people on RT think we are due for a long term down turn? I
know it has to
be at least one technical reason but what fundamental
reason is there to
believe that? The
blue chips have
an average PE of 15 .. earnings are still growing at a
healthy rate
and we
have little inflation. The country is fully employed
and oil has at least
stabilized. Do we put
our money
on some chart marks or bollinger bands or elliot waves or on
facts? My take on
the equity markets are that they will
continue to climb hesitantly up the
"wall of worry" with
slips and stumbles along the way but belief in a long term down trend
will
have to show up
on my "facts of the economy" list
before I can join that camp.
Bob
At 08:22
AM 3/4/2006 -0500, you wrote:
> You are correct.
Lets at least wait untill he is proven wrong or
right,
>before
we make comments on it. If we don't make a new high over the
next
>few weeks. He is correct. If we do make
new highs. He is wrong.
>My vote is for new highs after
this probably very small correction.
> I will say that he
worded it a little supicous, but it may have need a
>mistake.
> When someone says the top is in but gives no
time frame it does make it
>seem like there is no way for them to
be wrong.
> Does he mean the top for this week? The
top for this month?
> Or as it seems that he said.
The top is in. Meaning the bull is over
with
>a bear for
years.
> Hard to know and understand when someone
makes quick statements with
no
>explainations.
> But overall Ben seems to be a good guy and helps a lot with his
posts.
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Dan Harels" <harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Saturday, March 04,
2006 1:19 AM
>Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
>
>
> > Bob,
> >
> > There are many bright people on this forum and ridicule, no matter
how
> > subtle or "clever", does not encourage
dialog.
> >
> > Dan
>
>
> >
> >>From: "Bob"
<BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
> >>Reply-To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>Subject: Re: [RT]
mkt outlook
> >>Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 18:38:18
-0600
> >>
> >>How could it have been
wrong?
> >> ----- Original Message
-----
> >> From: Ron Cernokus
>
>> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>> Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 4:53 PM
>
>> Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
>
>>
> >>
> >> Here is
Ben's call from last Tuesday.
> >>
>
>> S
> >>
>
>>
> >> volume still points
to 1300-1310 on sp500,
> >> that
should be accomplished in 2-4 days,
>
>> if not ,all bets are off ,and the top is
in,
> >> Ben
>
>>
> >>
> >> SPONSORED
LINKS Business finance uk Business finance course
Business
> >>finance online course
>
>> Business finance
class Small business finance Business
finance
>
>>schools
> >>
> >>
>
>>------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ------
> >> YAHOO! GROUPS
LINKS
> >>
> >>
a.. Visit your group "realtraders" on the web.
>
>>
> >> b.. To
unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>
>>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>
>
>> c.. Your use of Yahoo! Groups is
subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
> >>Service.
>
>>
> >>
>
>>------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ------
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
>
>
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>Yahoo! Groups
Links
>
>
>
>
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