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Bob,
You will be taken to task when you "poke" someone who has the
courage and cares enough to
post an opinion on the market direction or an equity or future
contract. Most won't do that and
to have a member like Ben who believes in his work sufficiently to share
his opinion, is a gift for
this list and we continue to hope Ben will inspire others to share ideas
and opinions. If not for
that, what purpose does this list serve? When he or anyone else is
wrong, does it help you or
anyone else to point it out to them on the list? Or do such
pot shots simply discourage all our
members from sharing ideas? Most of the membership on this list
couldn't give a "flying fux"
about political correctness but they do care about courtesy and needless
reminders to someone
who was trying to help, that they were wrong on a certain occasion.
Most people who do post an opinion here cover their thoughts with
"unless this happens", or "as
it stands right now" or "unless we break through x
resistance" or some other general qualifier
that lets them "off the hook". How many people do you see
post to RT and simply say, "this will
happen at x time"? Very few and when we insult these few by
reminding them they were wrong
on a given occasion, I can nearly guarantee you we will lose even those
few.
So, all I ask from everyone is to appreciate people like Ben. A man
with the bravery and belief in
his work to share it with you at no cost or consideration. He won't
be right every time. Neither
will you. Neither will anyone. At least applaud him for
believing in himself.
Bob
At 07:40 AM 3/4/2006 -0600, you wrote:
First,
it wasn't ridicule. Second, the problem with these forums is you
can't challenge anything or anyone without being accused of ridicule (or
censored or kicked out).....the scourge of political
correctness.
I'm sorry but I guess I don't see the value
in saying a market may go up or it may go down, and it will do that over
the course of the next 2-4 days. As for 1300, the S&P has been
range bound for months with 1300 (futures) marking the top of the range,
so where the h-ll else is it going to go if it goes up???
For the better part of the past 18 months Ben
and others have been calling a top and warning us to liquidate our
holdings, and depending on the index of your choosing they've continued
to rally from 10-20%+. If you call a top after every big down day
during an uptrend you will be eventually be right but you'll also be
broke if you trade that opinion. I don't believe Ben is broke and I
don't believe he marries his opinions - I believe he adapts when they are
wrong which for all of us is more often than not. I was just
commenting on his post which made no sense to me.
The funny thing about all this is that I
agree with their assessment and have for the same length of time, and
I've been wrong too. And I still think the stock market(s) are a
huge accident waiting to happen. But over the years I've learned
not to trade my opinion because opinions & forecasts play no role in
trading - unless you want to lose. As for which side owns time, my
fills are based on Price and as long as that's the case I'm going to
trade Price.
Is this time different though?
Maybe. The indexes have been range hopping for a very long
time.....we churn endlessly for months and then over the course of a few
days we move to a new range and resume the churning. But if you
look at a Dow chart you can see that these ranges have been getting
progressively smaller - a sign it's getting tired? We've had more
(and welcome) volatility recently which you frequently see at a top after
a long (and incredibly boring) grind up. We've also had a number of
weak closes lately which could also be a sign that the bears are warming
up. However, if you look at any of the daily/weekly/monthly charts
none of them have broken down (yet), so the trend is the trend until it
isn't even if it looks to have a foundation constructed of
toothpicks.
But despite my overly bearish opinion on the
stock market(s), if the DAX sets up long Monday morning I'm going to buy
it, and if it trends higher I'll continue to buy it until it tells me to
stop even though in my view it will be "wrong" the entire
time. Trading isn't about being right, it's about winning.
And the biggest challenge isn't becoming profitable, it's staying that
way. And this is the only way I've discovered that allows you to do
both.
If you choose to believe that this is
ridicule, well, that's your problem, not mine.
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dan Harels"
<harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 12:19
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> Bob,
>
> There are many bright people on this forum and ridicule, no matter
how
> subtle or "clever", does not encourage dialog.
>
> Dan
>
>
> >From: "Bob"
<BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
> >Reply-To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >To:
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 18:38:18 -0600
> >
> >How could it have been wrong?
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Ron Cernokus
> > To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > Sent: Friday, March 03,
2006 4:53 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >
> >
> > Here is Ben's call from last Tuesday.
> >
> > S
> >
> >
> > volume still points to 1300-1310 on
sp500,
> > that should be accomplished in 2-4
days,
> > if not ,all bets are off ,and the top
is in,
> > Ben
> >
> >
> > SPONSORED LINKS Business finance uk Business
finance course Business
> >finance online course
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> >
> >
>
>------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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> >Service.
> >
> >
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>
>
>
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