I'd like to raise my hand and add to this topic the consideration for labeling correctly
what we are talking about. Assigning an operational definition if you will. When I hear the likes of J. Phillip using the word "System" to describe what he has it makes me sick to my stomach. For it is not a "System" but more a "Toolkit" that allows for interest to be taken
in "Statistically Significant points of interest" However, a System does Not allow for
any discretion to be added to the signals being delivered on the chart or in fact
executed by the program.
Appologies in advance to the list, just so tired of hearing people describe what they have
as a System then go on to describe how they took this trade but didn't take that one, etc..
etc..
I do mostly discretion myself, and have kicked and crawled my way up the food chain
from doing 1 and 2 lots to 100 and 200lots at a time. So, I feel I have something to add here.
However, I do have at my disposal, Systems. They do help me by drawing my attention
to overall market structure throughout the day and potentially a bias that *may* be forming or has already formed. For instance the Systems that I run and have at my disposal are 100% automated, true Systems, no discretion involved. Of the few only one has a track record of 8+years producing a 45deg. equity curve and back to back month to month profits.
in the style of J.P. not trying to brag, but taking it one step further, running a true system
can and does produce real world profits. Furthermore, attempting to backtest a so-called,
"system" that was previously described doesn't produce a trackable equity curve.
the following is Not curve fitted(at all) and accounts for comms., and slippage(in/out)
Hope we can all call a System a System and anything else that is discretionary with
help of indicator sets, whether Strategy-based or not "a Toolkit."
EAdamy <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
There are some regulars who have been on this list for many, many years and Tim Morge is one of them. I use quite a variety of tools (EW, regression channels, forks, etc.) and apply the tools individually or in combination as the market varies its character. I do use some of Tim's methods and they do work well for me. I also enjoy reading Tim's commentary because they describe in logical detail how he does his setups and how he executes his trades as the market unfolds. I've been around trading long enough to spot a BS artist from quite a distance and Tim is not one of them.
I submit that the long term "survivors" on this list are perfectly capable of setting up trades "ahead of time" and executing their trading plans. For discretionary traders, the market is part "art" and "sixth sense" and it must work to the trader's advantage or they would not be among the survivors. Finally, most wannabe traders will take a good system and lose money with it because they will not have the discipline to execute the system as it needs to be executed ... been there done that. I tried system trading for some years before I threw it out and began applying discretionary trading techniques. Discretionary works for me, but you won't see me trashing system traders. In fact, I follow Clyde Lee's posts on his cyclical systems with considerable interest.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Friday, October 21, 2005 1:43 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] My impression is that many had a bad day
Tim,
It was never my intention to accuse you of fitting forks into trades or vice versa. It's just that pichforks, wave count, Wolve, etc. all of them prove well in hindsight, but are not so easy to set up ahead of time to get good results. This all boils down to the question: what is the accuracy of these methods which is hard to answer because they are as much science as art. Not many traders will get the same results using the same methodology of that sort.
I mentioned the Median Line because I visited your "conference room" ystd and watched your chart at the same time as I was trading my system (from ~12:30 to 13:10) so it was the first thing that came to mind. And I did say that pitchforks often work which obviously was the case of your recent trades.
As to my trades of ystd, I just showed what a system can do (not as evidence of my prowess) on a day which caused some confusion among some traders on the list.
Let's not be too sensitive and no bad feelings, please,
Jan Philipp