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The 650 to 725 area is holding and acting as resistance and the retracement has occurred.  An entry price for the next up trade has not been hit as yet.  If it is hit the next upside resistance level should be 10,800.  Have a good week end all.  Ira.
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: mr.ira
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 11:22 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

Congratulations on a great set of charts.  The interesting thing is that different people look at the same chart and see different things.   Using the daily chart only it would take a drop of over 250 points in the Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude of over 1000 points.  That leaves a huge stop.  For it to even begin 10,400 would have to be taken out and there would be support at 10,000,  that would make for part of the move, 600 points +/-. 
 
ON the up side I have a very high price target of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at 11,025 and 11,280. 
 
There are resistance levels at 10,650, 10,725 and 10,960.  These resistance levels are interim price objectives and retracements should occur from these levels.  It is the magnitude of the retracement that will make the difference as to whether price continues up or goes down to test previous levels as support. 
 
Like your work Ben.
 
Just a little different input using different data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 10:31 AM
Subject: [RT] market outlook

The Dow Industrial Average has broken out of the intermediate consolidation pattern, closing above resistance at [3], then drawing into a narrow range at [4], before further gains at [5]. Volumes were light until Friday [5] which experienced increased selling (signaled by the weak close). Expect a test of resistance at 10900/11000. A pull-back that respects 10550 would add confirmation; while a retreat below 10550 would signal further hesitancy.



The last year has established strong support at 10000/9750. There is also strong resistance at 11000/11500, shown by price action from 1999 to 2001 and by recent highs in 2005. I expect to see a lot more price action between these levels before there is a clear breakout.

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong rise above the zero line. If the indicator rises above the recent high, without crossing below zero, that would be a further bull signal.




Transport indicators have failed to follow through on recent bear signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the recent highs: Fedex above 90.00 and UPS, similarly, above its May high.




The Nasdaq Composite is testing resistance at 2100. A close above this level (the high of the January to March consolidation) would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Friday showed increased resistance with strong volume and a red candle (weak close); so a fall below 2050 should not be discounted, signaling a test of support at 1900.

The market appears to have more confidence in the (Dow) heavyweights.




The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than the Dow and is close to testing resistance at the March high of 1225. A close above 1225 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend.




Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a pull-back that held above the zero line. A rise to a new 6-month high would confirm.



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