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Re: [RT] market outlook



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Well the up entry price was hit and it went to its target now we are looking again for the next trade up or down.
----- Original Message -----
From: Clyde Lee
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 9:53 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

If this cycle is correct then it IS time to start thinking SHORT
for maybe as much as 60 points or more.
 
Clyde
----- Original Message -----
From: mr.ira
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 11:33 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

Well!  Here is 1237 and now it is time to look for the next leg up and the next leg down.  See which entry price is hit.  Like shooting fish in a barrel at times.  Other times are a little tougher.
 
Good trading, Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: mr.ira
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 8:32 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

I have no longer term sell on the SPX.  I have resistance, a price objective, at 1244 and an over all target of 1262 for the move up.  My short term downside target is 1239 which appears to have been reached and another leg down is setting up.  If the entry price is hit look for support at 1239 and a target price of 1237.   Right now the entry price hasn't been hit for this next leg down.  There is also an entry price for the next move up.  If that is hit the profit potential for that move far exceeds the current potential for a down move.
 
There is nothing happening right now that says that the up move is over even though there is a retracement currently going on.
 
Ira. .
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 7:51 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

I do not trade dia or Dow futures
only spy and sp05u
if you can translate into  spy or sp05u I can see our #   mach
(you could do at your leisure)
best regards
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: mr.ira
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 10:38 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

This is where we differ and our trading styles show our conflicting approach.  It appears that you are trading off of extremes that are produced by your charts and I would trade when price has hit my entry price.  We seem to both come up with similar answers.  You scale in and I would trade the max that my money management would allow.   Both have stops.  My stop tells me I am wrong.  I have no idea how you create your stop.
 
Right now I would be short with an entry price of 10694 with support at 10685 and a target at 10670.  Stop at 10725.  All specific numbers, these are rounded, with indicator confirmation.
 
do these numbers fit your scenario?
 
Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 6:37 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

Hello Ira
this is why  i put only 25% of the position and always has an exit point which is a stop loss
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: mr.ira
Sent: Friday, July 29, 2005 1:17 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

So far so good.  Ben you are a couple of days early for a real short I believe.  We are at that 10,725 resistance area and a retracement of sorts should occur.
 
Once again one mans opinion,  Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: mr.ira
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 11:22 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] market outlook

Congratulations on a great set of charts.  The interesting thing is that different people look at the same chart and see different things.   Using the daily chart only it would take a drop of over 250 points in the Dow to start a retracement with a magnitude of over 1000 points.  That leaves a huge stop.  For it to even begin 10,400 would have to be taken out and there would be support at 10,000,  that would make for part of the move, 600 points +/-. 
 
ON the up side I have a very high price target of just over 13,000, with shorter term targets at 11,025 and 11,280. 
 
There are resistance levels at 10,650, 10,725 and 10,960.  These resistance levels are interim price objectives and retracements should occur from these levels.  It is the magnitude of the retracement that will make the difference as to whether price continues up or goes down to test previous levels as support. 
 
Like your work Ben.
 
Just a little different input using different data. Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben
Sent: Sunday, June 19, 2005 10:31 AM
Subject: [RT] market outlook

The Dow Industrial Average has broken out of the intermediate consolidation pattern, closing above resistance at [3], then drawing into a narrow range at [4], before further gains at [5]. Volumes were light until Friday [5] which experienced increased selling (signaled by the weak close). Expect a test of resistance at 10900/11000. A pull-back that respects 10550 would add confirmation; while a retreat below 10550 would signal further hesitancy.



The last year has established strong support at 10000/9750. There is also strong resistance at 11000/11500, shown by price action from 1999 to 2001 and by recent highs in 2005. I expect to see a lot more price action between these levels before there is a clear breakout.

Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) signals accumulation, with a strong rise above the zero line. If the indicator rises above the recent high, without crossing below zero, that would be a further bull signal.




Transport indicators have failed to follow through on recent bear signals. Watch for a rally that could take out the recent highs: Fedex above 90.00 and UPS, similarly, above its May high.




The Nasdaq Composite is testing resistance at 2100. A close above this level (the high of the January to March consolidation) would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. Friday showed increased resistance with strong volume and a red candle (weak close); so a fall below 2050 should not be discounted, signaling a test of support at 1900.

The market appears to have more confidence in the (Dow) heavyweights.




The S&P 500 shows even greater confidence than the Dow and is close to testing resistance at the March high of 1225. A close above 1225 would signal resumption of the primary up-trend.




Twiggs Money Flow (21-day) displays a strong bull signal: a pull-back that held above the zero line. A rise to a new 6-month high would confirm.



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