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[RT] Fw: Roy Ashworth's report



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Subject: Roy Ashworth's report

Commentary written on 10/31/2004
The trading system that was developed on data from 1/1/88 to 1/1/96 obviously failed in 1999. The parameters that worked for 10 years did not fit 1999 market conditions. I have optimized the parameters to fit the market from 1/1/98 to 12/31/99. The Critical parameters are:
 
2) Family             A-SEL(38 Selects+MM)
8) Rank Short         10
9) Rank Long          60
10) Slope LookBack    0
11) Ranking Method    ACC
17) Wilder Accel      0.0006
18) Signal File       A-SEL
24) Min Rank to Buy   10
27) Maxi Rnk to Hold  16
28) Num of Pos        5
35) Min Dys to Hld    30
36) Penalty           0.75%
 
The performance of this System in 2003 was:
From 12/31/02 to 12/31/03
Total Trades = 21
Num Wins= 14(66.7%)
Trades/Position/Year= 4.2
Total to date= 32.0%
Annualized Gain= 32.0%
Maximum Draw Down= 12.30%
Ulcer Index= 5.06%
 
The current performance of this System is:
From 12/31/03 to 10/29/04
Total Trades = 26
Num Wins= 8(30.8%)
Trades/Position/Year= 6.3
Total to date= -7.0%
Annualized Gain= -8.35%
Ulcer Index= 10.76%
Maximum Draw Down= 15.97%
 

A-SEL Holdings on 10/29/04 are:
                            Next
## Fund   Bought     %G/L   Trade
-- -----  --------  ------  ------
1  FSUTX 08/24/04     9.7
2  FSNGX 10/13/04     1.4
3  FSAGX 08/24/04    15.7
4  FSDPX 08/24/04     7.8
5  FSESX 09/23/04     1.8
===================================================================
Screen 1(MMR-SUMM Multi window file)
A-SEL(Select Family + SPRXX)Average :
From the top:
1) The Family Average is in the upper Bollinger Band (Positive).
2) The KST = 4.4 (Positive).
3) Family McClellan Summation Index = 3716(Positive) (Neutral is +1900).
4) Family McClellan Oscillator = 183(Positive).
5) Select Family Advance-Decline + Summation Indicator Status = BUY on 08/20/04.
6) Money Market Rank (Acc 6-24) = 35 of 42 (Positive).
===================================================================
Screen 2(MWD-AVG Multi window file)
A-SEL (Select Family + Money Market) Family Average:
Left to Right:
 
Monthly - The last two candles are Green (Positive). Prices are in the upper Bollinger Band (Positive). Stochastics and DMI are Positive. MACD, and MACD Histogram are Negative.
 
Weekly - The last candle is Green (Positive). Prices are in the upper Bollinger Band (Positive). Stochastics, MACD, MACD Histogram and DMI are Positive.
 
Daily - KST, RSI, MACD and MACD Histogram are Positive.
===================================================================
Screen 3 (MWD-US30 Multi window file)
 
30-Year Bond Yields:
 
The current yield is 4.79%
Left to Right:
Monthly - The last five candles are Red (decreasing Yields, increasing Prices)(Positive). Yields are in the lower Bollinger Band (Positive). Stochastics, MACD, MACD Histogram and DMI are Positive.
 
Weekly - The last candle is Green (Negative). Yields are in the lower Bollinger Band (Positive). Stochastics, MACD, MACD Histogram and DMI are Positive.
 
Daily - Yields are in the lower Bollinger Band (Positive). RSI and KST are Positive. MACD and MACD Histogram are Negative.
 
===================================================================
Conclusion:
 
Bond yields moved higher last week. The picture is the same as the last four weeks. The weekly indicators have moved to levels that usually mark the end of a trend and the daily indicators are starting to turn up. The daily indicators have also displayed divergences. The downtrend is near its end.
 
The Select Family average moved higher last week. Prices have again broken through the top of the small down trending channel that began in January 2004. The market has been in a sideways correction for 10 months and is ready to rally regardless of the outcome of the election.
 
The Dow, S&P, Russell 2000, and Select Family Average all moved higher last week. The Dow is the only index that is still in the lower weekly Bollinger Band. The NASDAQ 100, Russell 2000, and Select Family Average have broken out the top of the small down trending channel that began in January 2004. The relative strength of the small caps is a positive. The market has been in a sideways correction for 10 months and is ready to rally regardless of the outcome of the election.
 
 

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