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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Saturday, August 28, 2004 9:54 AM
Subject: 8/28 Report
<A
name=OLE_LINK2><A
name=OLE_LINK5><SPAN
><SPAN
>Technical market report for August 28,
2004
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The good news
is:
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Nearly all of the indicators that matter are
moving upward indicating the August 13 low is unlikely to be retested any time
soon.
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Seasonally the week before Labor Day is strong
for the small caps.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Reviewing charts is a little dull this week
because with a few exceptions everything is heading sharply upward.<SPAN
> The exceptions are charts of volume
which, so far, is missing from this rally.
In the chart below which covers the past 6 months, the NASDAQ composite
is in red, a 4% trend (55 day EMA) of volume of advancing issues is in green and
a 4% trend of volume of declining issues on an inverted Y axis is in brown.<SPAN
> Down side volume is shown on an inverted
Y axis to make the chart easier to read.
When downside volume is increasing (a negative) the indicator moves
downward and when downside volume decreases (a positive) the indicator moves
upward. The chart shows sellers
exhausted themselves at the August 13 low and the advance since then has been
caused by an absence of downside volume rather than a buying surge.<SPAN
> There was a little pop in upside volume
at the low, but it faded a few days into the
move.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
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o:title="OTC-UV-DV-"><IMG
src="gif00219.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The next chart shows momentum of total volume of
the component issues of the Russell 2000 (R2K).<SPAN
> The R2K is in red and the volume
momentum indicator in black. The
direction of the indicator tells if total volume is increasing or decreasing and
the dashed line in the center is neutral.
The chart begins the first of this year and ends last Friday, the grey
vertical dashed lines are drawn the first of each month.<SPAN
> After increasing for the first two
months of the year volume has been declining, rising a little during price
declines and falling during price.
That pattern is unbroken.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="R2K-Vol-MoM"><IMG
src="gif00220.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>Seasonally the week before Labor Day has been
much better for the small caps than the large caps.<SPAN
> Over the past 15 years the R2K has been
up 80% of the time and averaged a 0.80% gain while the S&P 500 (SPX) has
been up 60% of the time, but, because of several large losses, has averaged a
0.54% loss.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>5
days before Labor DayThe number following the % change represents
the day of the week 1=Monday, 5=Friday etc.The number following
the year is the year of the presidential cycle.<SPAN
> R2K<SPAN
>
Day5
Day4
Day3 <SPAN
> Day2<SPAN
> Day1<SPAN
> Totals<BR
clear=all>1989-1
-0.01% 1 -0.13% 2<SPAN
> 0.33% 3<SPAN
> 0.43% 4<SPAN
> 0.29% 5<SPAN
> 0.91%<BR
clear=all>1990-2<SPAN
> 3.31%
1 0.65% 2<SPAN
> 0.34% 3<SPAN
> -0.53% 4<SPAN
> 0.14% 5<SPAN
> 3.92%<BR
clear=all>1991-3<SPAN
> 0.21%
1 0.09% 2<SPAN
> 0.83% 3<SPAN
> 0.19% 4<SPAN
> 0.31% 5<SPAN
> 1.63%<BR
clear=all>1992-4
-0.02% 1 0.23%
2 0.78% 3<SPAN
> 0.40% 4<SPAN
> -0.08% 5<SPAN
> 1.32%<BR
clear=all>1993-1<SPAN
> 0.31%
1 0.56% 2<SPAN
> 0.37% 3<SPAN
> 0.39% 4<SPAN
> 0.24% 5<SPAN
> 1.87%<BR
clear=all>1994-2<SPAN
> 0.22%
1 0.38% 2<SPAN
> 0.46% 3<SPAN
> -0.49% 4<SPAN
> 0.05% 5<SPAN
> 0.63%<BR
clear=all>1995-3
-0.34% 1 -0.60% 2<SPAN
> 0.58% 3<SPAN
> 0.68% 4<SPAN
> 0.28% 5<SPAN
> 0.60%<BR
clear=all>1996-4
-0.08% 1 0.67%
2 0.56% 3<SPAN
> -0.33% 4<SPAN
> -0.19% 5<SPAN
> 0.64%<BR
clear=all>1997-1<SPAN
> 0.57%
1 0.05% 2<SPAN
> 0.60% 3<SPAN
> 0.18% 4<SPAN
> 0.44% 5<SPAN
> 1.84%<BR
clear=all>1998-2
-5.74% 1 3.00%
2 1.31% 3<SPAN
> -1.80% 4<SPAN
> 0.23% 5<SPAN
> -3.01%<BR
clear=all>1999-3
-1.18% 1 0.11%
2 0.74% 3<SPAN
> -0.83% 4<SPAN
> 2.00% 5<SPAN
> 0.84%<BR
clear=all>2000-4<SPAN
> 0.26%
1 0.60% 2<SPAN
> 0.52% 3<SPAN
> 1.03% 4<SPAN
> 0.75% 5<SPAN
> 3.16%<BR
clear=all>2001-1
-0.39% 1 -0.99% 2<SPAN
> -0.18% 3<SPAN
> -1.09% 4<SPAN
> 0.08% 5<SPAN
> -2.57%<BR
clear=all>2002-2<SPAN
> 1.90%
1 -2.52% 2<SPAN
> -2.03% 3<SPAN
> 1.29% 4<SPAN
> -0.87% 5<SPAN
> -2.24%<BR
clear=all>2003-3
-0.34% 1 0.55%
2 0.91% 3<SPAN
> 0.99% 4<SPAN
> 0.32% 5<SPAN
> 2.44%<BR
clear=all>Averages
-0.09%
0.18%
0.41%
0.03%
0.27%
0.80%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 47%<SPAN
>
73%<SPAN
>
87%
60%<SPAN
>
80%<SPAN
>
80%SPX<SPAN
>
Day5
Day4
Day3
Day2
Day1
Totals1989-1<SPAN
> 0.45%
1 -0.64% 2<SPAN
> 0.23% 3<SPAN
> 0.23% 4<SPAN
> 0.65% 5<SPAN
> 0.92%<BR
clear=all>1990-2<SPAN
> 3.19%
1 -0.03% 2<SPAN
> 0.89% 3<SPAN
> -1.69% 4<SPAN
> 1.21% 5<SPAN
> 3.56%<BR
clear=all>1991-3
-0.08% 1 -0.20% 2<SPAN
> 0.91% 3<SPAN
> -0.04% 4<SPAN
> -0.26% 5<SPAN
> 0.32%<BR
clear=all>1992-4
-0.20% 1 0.49%
2 0.46% 3<SPAN
> 0.00% 4<SPAN
> -0.22% 5<SPAN
> 0.54%<BR
clear=all>1993-1<SPAN
> 0.30%
1 0.36% 2<SPAN
> -0.09% 3<SPAN
> -0.40% 4<SPAN
> 0.01% 5<SPAN
> 0.18%<BR
clear=all>1994-2<SPAN
> 0.17%
1 0.31% 2 <SPAN
> -0.12% 3<SPAN
> -0.49% 4<SPAN
> -0.46% 5<SPAN
> -0.59%<BR
clear=all>1995-3
-0.19% 1 0.17%
2 0.16% 3<SPAN
> 0.17% 4<SPAN
> 0.35% 5<SPAN
> 0.67%<BR
clear=all>1996-4
-0.47% 1 0.38%
2 -0.24% 3<SPAN
> -1.11% 4<SPAN
> -0.82% 5<SPAN
> -2.27%<BR
clear=all>1997-1
-0.37% 1 -0.78% 2<SPAN
> 0.07% 3<SPAN
> -1.10% 4<SPAN
> -0.46% 5<SPAN
> -2.63%<BR
clear=all>1998-2
-6.80% 1 3.86%
2 -0.38% 3<SPAN
> -0.83% 4<SPAN
> -0.85% 5<SPAN
> -5.00%<BR
clear=all>1999-3
-1.80% 1 -0.27% 2<SPAN
> 0.81% 3<SPAN
> -0.90% 4<SPAN
> 2.89% 5<SPAN
> 0.73%<BR
clear=all>2000-4<SPAN
> 0.51%
1 -0.28% 2<SPAN
> -0.48% 3<SPAN
> 1.00% 4<SPAN
> 0.20% 5<SPAN
> 0.95%<BR
clear=all>2001-1
-0.48% 1 -1.50% 2<SPAN
> -1.11% 3<SPAN
> -1.70% 4<SPAN
> 0.40% 5<SPAN
> -4.40%<BR
clear=all>2002-2<SPAN
> 0.75%
1 -1.39% 2<SPAN
> -1.81% 3<SPAN
> -0.01% 4<SPAN
> -0.19% 5<SPAN
> -2.64%<BR
clear=all>2003-3<SPAN
> 0.07%
1 0.30% 2<SPAN
> 0.01% 3<SPAN
> 0.61% 4<SPAN
> 0.52% 5<SPAN
> 1.50%<BR
clear=all>Averages
-0.33%
0.05%
-0.05%
-0.45%
0.20%
-0.54%<SPAN
> Winners<SPAN
> 47%<SPAN
>
47%<SPAN
>
53%<SPAN
>
29%<SPAN
>
53%<SPAN
>
60%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>There has been no sign of sellers since the
August 13 bottom and I doubt they will return before Labor
Day.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>I expect the major indices to be higher on
Friday September 3 than they were on Friday August
27.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>This report is free to anyone who wants it, so
please tell your friends.They can sign up
at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk
W15/L14/T5
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