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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Saturday, June 19, 2004 11:02 AM
Subject: 6/19 Report
<A
name=OLE_LINK4><A
name=OLE_LINK1><SPAN
><SPAN
>Technical
market report for June 19, 2004.The good news
is:
<LI class=MsoNormal
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The market
held up pretty well last week in spite of good excuses to go
down.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The market
appears comatose.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The chart
below covers 1 year and shows the NASDAQ composite in red and a 4% trend (55 day
EMA) of NASDAQ volume of advancing issues in green.<SPAN
> Volume of NASDAQ advancing issues is at
its lowest level of the past year last
week.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
coordsize="21600,21600" o:spt="75" o:preferrelative="t"
path="m@x@5l@x@11@x@11@x@5xe" filled="f" stroked="f"><v:stroke
joinstyle="miter"><v:f
eqn="if lineDrawn pixelLineWidth 0"><v:f
eqn="sum 0 0 @1"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelWidth"><v:f
eqn="prod @3 21600 pixelHeight"><v:f
eqn="prod @6 1 2"><v:f
eqn="sum @8 21600 0"><v:f
eqn="sum @10 21600 0"><v:path o:extrusionok="f"
gradientshapeok="t" o:connecttype="rect"><o:lock v:ext="edit"
aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-AV"><IMG
src="gif00181.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>One of my
favorite indicators for identifying short term market direction is a 10% trend
(19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs.
This indicator, like the market, has been flat since the first of
June.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-NH"><IMG
src="gif00182.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The
indicator, in blue, on the chart below is calculated by putting a momentum
indicator on an oscillator of NASDAQ new highs and new lows.<SPAN
> The indicator has done a fairly good job
of smoothing out the day to day zig zags of the market and sometimes leads turns
by a few days. Since the first of the year, declines in this indicator have been
accompanied by price declines.
Since the first of June prices have remained flat while the indicator has
declined sharply indicating underlying strength in prices.<SPAN
> This indicator is approaching its lowest
level of the current year and is still heading sharply
downward.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><v:shape id=_x0000_i1027
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC-HL-OSC-MoM"><IMG
src="gif00183.gif">
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>The week
following June options expiration has historically been a little
weak.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><FONT
size=3>Report for the week following options expiration in June.<BR
clear=all>The number following the year is the position in the presidential
cycle.Russell 2000Year<SPAN
> Mon<SPAN
> Tue<SPAN
> Wed<SPAN
> Thur<SPAN
> Fri<BR
clear=all>1989-1 -0.23%<SPAN
> -0.21%<SPAN
> -0.26%<SPAN
> 0.22%<SPAN
> 0.48%1990-2<SPAN
> -1.27%<SPAN
> -0.21%<SPAN
> -0.10%<SPAN
> 0.13%<SPAN
> -0.26%1991-3<SPAN
> -1.84%<SPAN
> -0.58%<SPAN
> -0.39%<SPAN
> 0.36%<SPAN
> -0.49%1992-4<SPAN
> -0.96%<SPAN
> 0.26%<SPAN
> -0.30%<SPAN
> -0.24%<SPAN
> 0.04%1993-1<SPAN
> -0.31%<SPAN
> -0.10%<SPAN
> -0.16%<SPAN
> 0.27%<SPAN
> 0.53%1994-2<SPAN
> -1.32%<SPAN
> -1.20%<SPAN
> 0.48%<SPAN
> -1.13%<SPAN
> -1.28%1995-3<SPAN
> 0.51%<SPAN
> 0.11%<SPAN
> 0.07%<SPAN
> 0.57%<SPAN
> -0.12%1996-4<SPAN
> 0.47%<SPAN
> -0.69%<SPAN
> -1.34%<SPAN
> 0.63%<SPAN
> 1.36%1997-1<SPAN
> -0.71%<SPAN
> 0.63%<SPAN
> -0.53%<SPAN
> -0.24%<SPAN
> 0.58%1998-2<SPAN
> 0.74%<SPAN
> 1.31%<SPAN
> 0.89%<SPAN
> -0.27%<SPAN
> 0.02%1999-3<SPAN
> 0.99%<SPAN
> -0.47%<SPAN
> -0.06%<SPAN
> -0.87%<SPAN
> -0.01%2000-4<SPAN
> 1.76%<SPAN
> 0.56%<SPAN
> 0.37%<SPAN
> -2.39%<SPAN
> -0.89%2001-1<SPAN
> -0.93%<SPAN
> -0.37%<SPAN
> 1.46%<SPAN
> 0.39%<SPAN
> -1.84%2002-2<SPAN
> -0.43%<SPAN
> -1.45%<SPAN
> 0.11%<SPAN
> 1.27%<SPAN
> 0.85%2003-3<SPAN
> -2.26%<SPAN
> 0.34%<SPAN
> 0.53%<SPAN
> 1.51%<SPAN
> -0.26%Avg<SPAN
> -0.39%<SPAN
> -0.14%<SPAN
> 0.05%<SPAN
> 0.01%<SPAN
> -0.09%Win%<SPAN
> 33%<SPAN
> 40%<SPAN
> 47%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
>
47%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
><BR
clear=all>S&P 500Year <SPAN
> Mon<SPAN
> Tue<SPAN
> Wed<SPAN
> Thur<SPAN
> Fri<BR
clear=all>1989-1 `0.17%<SPAN
> -0.20%<SPAN
> -0.24%<SPAN
> 0.57%<SPAN
> 1.76%1990-2<SPAN
> -1.66%<SPAN
> 0.45%<SPAN
> 0.18%<SPAN
> 0.38%<SPAN
> -1.40%1991-3<SPAN
> -1.80%<SPAN
> -0.08%<SPAN
> 0.25%<SPAN
> 0.76%<SPAN
> -0.87%1992-4<SPAN
> -0.07%<SPAN
> 0.16%<SPAN
> -0.05%<SPAN
> -0.18%<SPAN
> 0.08%1993-1<SPAN
> 0.57%<SPAN
> -0.06%<SPAN
> -0.61%<SPAN
> 0.77%<SPAN
> 0.22%1994-2<SPAN
> -0.65%<SPAN
> -0.91%<SPAN
> 0.39%<SPAN
> -0.76%<SPAN
> -1.52%1995-3<SPAN
> 1.00%<SPAN
> -0.04%<SPAN
> -0.18%<SPAN
> 1.30%<SPAN
> -0.25%1996-4<SPAN
> 0.30%<SPAN
> -0.06%<SPAN
> -0.61%<SPAN
> 0.63%<SPAN
> 0.31%1997-1<SPAN
> -2.23%<SPAN
> 2.02%<SPAN
> -0.82%<SPAN
> -0.60%<SPAN
> 0.41%1998-2<SPAN
> 0.24%<SPAN
> 1.47%<SPAN
> 1.20%<SPAN
> -0.32%<SPAN
> 0.35%1999-3<SPAN
> 0.46%<SPAN
> -0.97%<SPAN
> -0.21%<SPAN
> -1.30%<SPAN
> -0.04%2000-4<SPAN
> 1.47%<SPAN
> -0.68%<SPAN
> 0.22%<SPAN
> -1.82%<SPAN
> -0.74%2001-1<SPAN
> -0.49%<SPAN
> 0.34%<SPAN
> 0.87%<SPAN
> 1.14%<SPAN
> -0.94%2002-2<SPAN
> 0.36%<SPAN
> -1.67%<SPAN
> -0.27%<SPAN
> 1.76%<SPAN
> -0.08%2003-3<SPAN
> -1.41%<SPAN
> 0.18%<SPAN
> -0.83%<SPAN
> 1.08%<SPAN
> -0.97%Avg<SPAN
> -0.25%<SPAN
> 0.00%<SPAN
> -0.05%<SPAN
> 0.23%<SPAN
> -0.24%Win%<SPAN
> 53%<SPAN
> 40%<SPAN
> 40%<SPAN
> 60%<SPAN
>
40%
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>There is no
conviction for either direction and the seasonal bias for next week is slightly
negative.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>I expect the
major indices will be lower on Friday June 25 than they were on Friday June
18.
<SPAN
><SPAN
><SPAN
>I am calling
last weeks negative forecast a draw.
Some of the indices were up slightly and some were
down.
<FONT
face="Times New Roman"><SPAN
><SPAN
>This
report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.They can
sign up at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply
with REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk
W8/L11/T5
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