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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Monday, April 12, 2004 9:20 PM
Subject: Gordon Harms report
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
4/8/04 MARKET CLOSE
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET CLIMATE/OUTLOOK-
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Low Interest Rates<SPAN
>
-Bullish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Gross Domestic Product<SPAN
> -Bullish Up 4.1%
was Up 8.2%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Expected Earnings<SPAN
> -Bullish $64.15 up from
$63.22
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Trailing S&P earnings<SPAN
> -Bearish
$49.08 up from $38.58
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Investor Contrary Sentiment -Neutral 1 Bear, 2 Neutral
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>VALUATION: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Estimated S&P500 P/E for the coming year is <B
>18.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The S&P500 P/E ratio is <B
>23(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to
1997)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
trailing earnings. Trailing P/E was 45 in April 2002.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 market value is 3.51 times book value. Was 3.52 last
week.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>TREND: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 6.95% above 1065 the 200sma which is rising. Was
7.52%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Oct through May is seasonally favorable on average.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Stock Value Index is 4.10, was 4.03. Buy greater than 1.03.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 is 54% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 2483 fair
value,
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 annual earnings growth is 75%/year. Low -51.41% on
4/19/02.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Long term
S&P earnings growth rate average is near 6%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.17%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Prior week was
-0.17%. BUY at greater than approx.-1.50%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Three month ROC of M3 money is 2.99%, last week was 2.34%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Short Term Index Cycles
-Bullish 7 of 8
are moving up.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>All six trading systems are holding mutual funds from 3/31/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NASDAQ AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bullish turned up 3/29/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 0.49% above 1134 the 50sma which is falling. Was
+0.70%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Dollar index is up 3.82% from 2/17/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>TREND: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Long Term Index Cycles
<SPAN
> -Bearish All 8 are moving
down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NYSE AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down 4/7/04
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>BONDS:
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The 30 year U.S. Govt. bond real yield is 3.20%, last wk was 3.15%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> The historical
average, real yield is near 3.00%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
<FONT
face="Courier New"> is 4.83%,
current yield is 5.03%. Was 4.98%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>STBI Bonds are down 4.56% from 3/16/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Bd-Junk bonds are down 0.91% from 1/23/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Zero bonds are down 4.04% from 3/16/04.
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>INFLATION: 3 week moving average
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CPI, Feb is 1.83% (inflation), down from 1.86% in Jan. Low 1.20 7/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PPI, Jan is 3.45% (inflation), down from 3.63% in Dec. Low -2.37
2/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS:
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .58, last week was .58.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
> 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 69% Bullish, last week was 66%
Bullish.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
< 25% and Bearish > 65%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>AAII 58.8% bull and 20.3% bear. 3 wk SMA Ratio = 0.70(Mkt
Neutral).
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>3 wk SMA Ratio > 1.10 = Bullish, >> Bullish = > 1.50, <
0.35 = Bearish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>BEASLEY:OTC-C DOMINANT Neg Env, Score 7/15(IN > 4/15), IN<B
> 3/29/04.
<FONT
face="Courier New">
NYC-I <SPAN
> Pos
Env, Score 7/13(IN > 3/13), IN 8/12/03.
<FONT
face="Courier New">
Total score is 14 of 28, last weeks score was 18.
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size=2>
<FONT
face="Courier New">CYCLES<SPAN
> 5 WEEK<SPAN
>
10 WEEK<SPAN
>
20 WEEK<SPAN
>
9 Month<SPAN
>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>WIL-5 <st1:place
w:st="on">OB-Up,03/25/04
N-Up,03/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DJ-30 OB-Dn,03/25/04<SPAN
> <SPAN
> N-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/03/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RUT-I OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/04/04 <SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/09/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NDX-X <st1:place
w:st="on">OB-Up,03/25/04 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> N-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/06/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 OUT/Buy, <st1:place
w:st="on">OB = Stoch >80 Hold/Sell
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 3/24/03:(Last intermed.
low)
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
HiTech <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 9.4<SPAN
> Utilities
<SPAN
> 2.2
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
OTC-C
7.5<SPAN
>
Bd-Junk
0.6
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
RUT-I <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 7.2<SPAN
> BD-US<SPAN
>
-2.1
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Tele <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 7.1<SPAN
>
Bd-Zero <SPAN
> -4.1
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Cap-Smal <SPAN
> 7.1<SPAN
> Realty
<SPAN
> -4.8
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>FUNDS: SCHUS.Fam(1071) ranked from 3/24/03:(Last intermed.
low)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> INPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 25.4 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> BTTT<SPAN
>
-7.2
<FONT
face="Courier New">
WWIF<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 17.2<SPAN
> BTTR<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -8.2
<FONT
face="Courier New">
RIAF<SPAN
> 16.6<SPAN
> URPI<SPAN
>
-8.5
<FONT
face="Courier New">
RSIF<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 16.2<SPAN
> REPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -9.6
<FONT
face="Courier New">
ATCH<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 15.9<SPAN
> RYVN<SPAN
> <SPAN
>
-14.0
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> <SPAN
>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SYSTEM(NCALPHA)...TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD......G/L......ANN/MDD....ONE
YEAR
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....8...SHARP.....1.69.....50.8/7.9.......58.6
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....8...LOSDF.....1.69.....40.4/9.1.......47.9
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....8...MDSDF.....1.69.....49.4/18.2......53.9
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....8...NCALP.....1.69.....58.1/12.1......47.4
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500(Microc2x)..3/31/04.....6...S&P500....1.16.....14.5/9.3.......26.0
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....2...OTC-C.....2.94.....32.4/16.7......41.5
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Buy/Hold...4/08/03...252...SP500..............
9.6/49.2......29.6
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C
Buy/Hold....4/08/03...252...OTC-C..............11.2/77.9......48.2
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP:PRCG,RSPF,HRTV
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<IMG
src="gif00109.gif">
<IMG
src="gif00110.gif">
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