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Re: [RT] current market condition



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Earl

----- Original Message ----- 
From: "EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, October 07, 2003 6:48 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] current market condition


> S&P 500 has performed a rather interesting series of moves:
>
> 1) Bearish Thrust Reversal (across red line from previous pivot high) from
> the high occurred on 22Sep.
>
> 2) Bullish Spring Reversal from the low (across green line from previous
> pivot low) occurred on 01Oct (it is rare for a Spring to follow a Thrust
> within such a short period of time.
>
> 3) On 03Oct, the rally penetrated the Thrust pivot nullifying the Thrust.
>
> 4) On 03Oct, the rally also penetrated trendlines drawn from 19Mar02
(heavy
> blue) and 17May02 (light blue) pivot highs, then closed off the trendline.
> The 19Mar02 trendline was retested today and the close occurred just under
> the trendline.
>
> 5) NYSE volume was extremely low today (Monday). The last time this
occurred
> was on 29Aug with price just under a trendline drawn across the prior two
> daily pivot highs.
>
> 6) Price closed today well above the 78% retracement of the last decline.
>
> Should the SPX move through the two trendlines within the next day or two,
I
> would expect an explosive rally. It gets tricky here because we are in a
> cycle topping window. I have now partially hedged my LEAP put position
with
> long futures which will come off should this rally fail.
>
> Against this backdrop, the dollar came very close to taking out the recent
> lows.
>
> Earl

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