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I am not sure what economic facts Mr. Simms is using. The improvement
in corporate profits is not just due to lay-offs and firings. Low
interest rates is keeping the cost of capital low. It is more
advantageous for many companies to automate than to use people.
What will change this, then, is higher interest rates -- an example of
how a complex economy has many feedback mechanisms that assist it when
conventional wisdom says all is lost. I am not arguing that all is
pretty; I am very worried longer term about the impact if and when
China and Japan get their financial systems in order, and stop using
the US Treasury as an interest-paying alternative to keeping money
under the mattress.
Regards
DanG
Mark Simms wrote:
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="">
This
makes sense with the Macro-economic scene.......corporate profits
improving........all due to lay-offs and firings......
no
top-line GROWTH evident....anywhere.
This
results in a "teetering economy" .....reminiscent of the early
1980's....except that damn Crude Oil refuses to "tank" (ah, the power
of monopolies !)
See
Sun Micro as a dire predictor of future tech potential.
Hello
George Bush !
Is
there any economic intelligence in Washington DC or were those smart
people all fired ?
<blockquote
>
<font
face="Tahoma" size="2">-----Original Message-----
From: Jim White [mailto:jwhite43@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Thursday, October 02, 2003 1:45 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Mid-channel reversal
The markets have been advancing so
it is obviously a high pivot and turn down - that is the definition of
bearish.
Jim
<blockquote
>
<div
>-----
Original Message -----
<div
>From:
<a title="nwinski@xxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">Norman Winski
<div
>To:
<a title="realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<div
>Sent:
Thursday, October 02, 2003 10:31 AM
<div
>Subject:
Re: [RT] Mid-channel reversal
Jim,
Does your forecasting model
indicate whether this reversal should be a high or a low?
Thanks,
Norman
<blockquote
>
<div
>-----
Original Message -----
<div
>From:
<a title="jwhite43@xxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">Jim White
<div
>To:
<a title="realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
; <a title="gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx"
href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<div
>Sent:
Thursday, October 02, 2003 1:21 PM
<div
>Subject:
[RT] Mid-channel reversal
Those of you that have been following the Hurst methodology
might want to
look at the channel positions of the major indexes with daily data. The
Near
Impulse forecaster is predicting the potential for a reversal tomorrow.
A
reversal at mid-channel will be very bearish.
Jim White
PivotTrader.com
Home of the Near Impulse Forecaster
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