[no subject]

  The market participants can act to reverse the current direction – this 
  occurs about 75% of the time.
  The market participants can withdraw from the markets, allowing a sideways 
  congestion zone to form. This occurs about 15% of the time.
  The market participants can accelerate the current trend – this occurs 
  about 10% of the time.
So with this quick primer in mind, let’s peel the onion.
Figure (1) in the attachment presents the monthly chart for the NASDAQ 
market. Note that the January 2002 high pivot occurred exactly on the forecast 
date. The next forecast date shown is 3/31/03. Since the market was declining 
into this date, the expected outcome was for a low pivot to form and a new 
advance to begin. At this point in time, a lower low has occurred and the 
February high has been exceeded. This March low will be confirmed as a pivot 
point if the close on Monday, 3/31 is greater than the February high of 1352.07. 
A monthly close below this number will leave the outcome as uncertain.
Figure (2) presents a monthly close of the S$P 500 showing a similar 
structure. A close above the February high of 864.64 will confirm the low pivot. 
The DJIA shows a similar structure although the strength of the forecast date is 
much weaker than those for the other two markets.
So, on a monthly basis, we are near a confirmed reversal of the 3-month 
downtrend on all three major markets.
Going down one level of the onion, Figure (3) presents a weekly analysis of 
the S&P 500. Here we note that the weekly low pivot was recorded two weeks 
ago and the market has advanced into the 3/28 forecast date. Remember that there 
are three possible outcomes at a forecast line. The market could reverse the 
weekly up trend. Such a reversal would be confirmed by a weekly low close below 
last week’s low. And since the close on Friday was very near the weekly low, it 
seems quite possible.
The market could also move sideways from this point, trading within the range 
of last week. Or the market could accelerate it’s current up trend. Similar 
weekly structure exists for the DJIA and NASDAQ. Since all three markets failed 
to trade higher than the previous week is high, it suggests a sideways movement 
is most likely. We will not know until the close on Friday.
To peel the onion deeper, we go to a daily analysis. Figure (4) shows the 
S&P 500 daily analysis. Here we see the market declining five days from the 
3/21 high pivot into the 3/28 forecast date. We also note that the retracement 
from the high has been relatively weak. It has taken five days to retrace the 
last two days of advance into the high. Friday was an inside day with no 
directional information. This is bullish information showing underlying strength 
in a market during these very uncertain times.
It seems clear to me that the market wants to advance, confirming the monthly 
low pivot and continuing the weekly up trend. That advance has been delayed by a 
slowdown in the progress of the war. I believe the most likely outcome for the 
daily forecast will be an advance on Monday. The daily up move may last but a 
few days, however, as there is another set of forecast lines for the 4/2-3 and 
4/7 time period indicating the possibility of another reversal or high 
volatility with little direction.
The other scenario is that negative news over the weekend could accelerate 
the markets down into the 4/2 –3 period. On a longer-term basis, if the war 
stalls and casualties climb and allies begin to fall away, a very bearish 
scenario could evolve. I believe we are at a possible turning point in the 
future of our country and economy and that is why I pointed out the importance 
of this time period in our history.
Jim WhitePivotTrader.comHome of the Near Impulse 
Forecaster
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Jim 
  White 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A 
  title=immutableinvestors@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">immutableinvestors@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  ; <A title=holygrailsm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">holygrailsm@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A 
  title=gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">gannsghost@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; <A 
  title=cycletrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">cycletrader@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2003 12:54 
  PM
  Subject: [RT] Importance of 3/28/03
  
  I am sending you a special message regarding the 
  importance of 3/28/03 to the markets. This message was included in my Daily 
  Commentary for Monday, 3/17 however, I believe it is significant enough 
  importance for a wider distribution.
   
  
  COMMENTARY
  Importance of 3/28
  NOTE: I have expanded the pivot date forecasts to the end of March because 
  of the potential importance of these dates. You will note that every index and 
  ETF shares a common daily forecast date of 3/28. The importance of this date 
  is emphasized by the fact that on a weekly basis the indexes and ETF’s ALSO 
  share a date of 3/28. This confluence of forecast dates on a daily and weekly 
  basis rarely occurs. Consequently I believe this signifies a major turning 
  point in the markets. Since the dominant trend is down, I hope this turns out 
  to be a significant low. It could correspond with a termination of the war in 
  IRAQ. If, however, the market advances into this date with hopes of a peaceful 
  settlement, it could signify a major high as the war breaks out. I bring this 
  to your attention because it is important that you begin to prepare for either 
  outcome.
   
  Best Regards,
  Jim WhitePivotTrader.comHome of the Near 
  Impulse ForecasterTo 
  unsubscribe from this group, send an email 
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