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Rising or falling interest rates have little effect upon the market in a
broad sense. If you can make a 10% return you will borrow at 5%, 6% or 7%.
If you can't make any money you won't borrow at any percentage rate. You
have had boom economies with high interest rates and dead economies with low
interest rates.
You have had great economies with high tax rates and poor economies with low
tax rates. If you are not making any money you are not paying any taxes.
If you are not paying any taxes, then the government isn't collecting any
money to pay all those dead beats they have employed. Now they have to
borrow to pay them or fire them. Unlike business downsizing, government
forms another committee to study the matter. Now they have someplace to go
and ask who is to blame for this dilemma.
I don't know how we can be having a manufacturing slow down. What do
manufacture today? Everything that I see on the shelves is manufactured in
Asia or Europe. Look at what you buy at the market. Frozen orange juice
from concentrate from Mexico and Brazil. Food in the markets from Brazil,
Chile, Mexico and who knows where else. Lamb from Australia and flowers
from Chile. Cantaloupe from Mexico and beef from Argentina. I know someone
that has large orange orchards. He tells me that he can't sell his oranges
here because of the price. He exports them to Japan.
Today there are more people living on this earth then have died in the
entire history of the world. Let us hope that they all need services
because that appears to be all that we have to offer.
What is the definition of a 3rd world country? One that imports
manufactured goods, exports agriculture and is deeply in debt. Here we go
again.
Do I sound pessimistic? I wonder why? Ira.
----- Original Message -----
From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, December 15, 2002 7:37 AM
Subject: RE: Re[2]: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> No question, in the past, the deficits were not lethal.....
> all I am saying is this time, it could be different.
> The booming 90's provided the huge revenue tax dollars to fund an
> ever-growing government...
> at local, state, and national levels.
> Now we are "stuck" with this huge behemoth called "government"....and with
> an increased demand for $$$ and a decreased supply, the outlook for
matching
> revenues with expenses is poor.....
> unless either government is cut-back (reduced demand) or supply is
increased
> (higher taxes).
> Can anyone tell me which is going to happen ?
> I don't think either one.
> Potentially the government's appetite for funds <may> crowd-out the
> corporate sector resulting in higher interest rates.....and higher cost of
> doing business....resulting in reduced profits...and reduced economic
> growth.
>
> Under this scenario, I can see how the stock market could be "flat" for
the
> next 10 years.
> In that case, better follow John Cap's option selling technique if you
want
> to make any money.
>
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: Jim Johnson [mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Saturday, December 14, 2002 11:09 PM
> > To: Kent Rollins
> > Subject: Re[2]: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> >
> >
> > Hello Kent and Mark,
> >
> > You guys always suck me into these weekend debates. I'm w Kent on
> > this one. The deficit issue is red herring. US deficit has been at
> > small levels vs GDP in the last 30 years. What's more, national debt
> > is a bit misleading as we do not account for national assets--schools,
> > highways, various infrastructure. Research shows deficits (within the
> > range we have had) have little or no effect on the economy. Witness
> > the period 1980 thru 2000--or as I call it the Reagan expansion. He
> > was beat up about increasing defense spending, increasing the deficit
> > and cutting taxes. the sky was going to fall according to the Dem's.
> > Son of gun--the deficit disappeared because of tax receipts at reduced
> > rates and the Soviet Union tanked.
> >
> > On the inflation score, seems to me what we know as inflation is oil.
> > In 1973 OPEC stuck it to the world and the cost of everything went up.
> >
> > It eventually got digested and costs began to increase at acceptable
> > rates.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Jim Johnson mailto:jejohn@xxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> > --
> > Saturday, December 14, 2002, 2:37:13 PM, you wrote:
> >
> > >> over the DEFLATIONARY
> > >> ("Hello, Japan !") PPI numbers coming out of the statistical mills ?
> >
> > >>Massive inflation is one cost to consider.....because without fiscal
> >
> > KR> So that's it? It either unrestrained deflation or massive
inflation?
> > KR> You're not sure which one but you're darned sure it's going
> > to be one or the
> > KR> other. I guess a moderate inflation environment is out of
> > the question.
> > KR> Either the Fed is out of ammo or they will have to "print
> > money like crazy".
> > KR> There's no in between. There's no option like
> > KR>
> > "print-a-lot-of-money-to-keep-us-from-tipping-into-deflation-and-t
> > hen-slow-d
> > KR> own-some".
> >
> > KR> FYI: The debt and deficits have been much higher as a percent
> > of GDP than
> > KR> they are right now and corporations were able to borrow just fine.
> >
> > KR> The real danger is consumer debt and the impact that may have
> > on the banks
> > KR> if the consumers crumble.
> >
> > KR> Considering that we have had only one depression in the last
> > 100 years, the
> > KR> odds are that we will not have another one. I don't believe "the
> > KR> government" is the solution to very much. But I do believe
> > that Greenspan
> > KR> understands what levers to pull if things do get too far out
> > of whack. And
> > KR> I believe the Bush is going to press 100% on more massive tax
> > cuts and maybe
> > KR> even a major tax system overhaul. Tiny Daschle will do
> > everything he can to
> > KR> keep our taxes high but my money is on Bush.
> >
> > KR> But here's what I really want to know: if you believe all
> > this doom and
> > KR> gloom, what concrete actions are you taking in your personal
> > life to prepare
> > KR> for them? Seriously. Have you sold you house and loaded up
> > on gold? Have
> > KR> you cut all your personal debt? Are all your holdings in
> > cash right now? I
> > KR> want to know how seriously you believe in what you are
> > saying, even though
> > KR> you're saying two completely opposite things.
> >
> > KR> Kent
> >
> >
> > KR> ----- Original Message -----
> > KR> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > KR> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > KR> Sent: Saturday, December 14, 2002 1:00 PM
> > KR> Subject: RE: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> >
> >
> > KR> So you are confident the government will solve the problem then ?
> > KR> Maybe so, but at what cost ?
> > KR> Massive inflation is one cost to consider.....because without fiscal
> > KR> restraint, deficits will balloon to incredible proportions......and
> > KR> corporations will not be able to borrow at a reasonable cost.
> > KR> The only course of action remaining will be to print money
> > like crazy....
> >
> >
> >
> > >> -----Original Message-----
> > >> From: Kent Rollins [mailto:kentr@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > >> Sent: Friday, December 13, 2002 10:01 PM
> > >> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > >> Subject: Re: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Simms, have you sold all your material goods and moved to a
> > shack in the
> > >> mountains? We had a real estate crisis in the late 80's too. We
> > >> formed the
> > >> Resolution Trust Corporation and resolved the problem in a few
> > >> years. Japan
> > >> is still thinking about getting ready to talk about studying some
> > >> suggestions the Americans keep making for one day developing a
> > >> plan to begin
> > >> to start considering a lunch meeting on their problem. Please tell
me
> > >> you're living in a shack.
> > >>
> > >> Kent
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > >> From: "M. Simms" <prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >> To: "RealtradersList" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >> Sent: Friday, December 13, 2002 4:15 PM
> > >> Subject: [RT] "feel the panic"....
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> Couldn't you just "feel" the market getting the wind knocked out
> > >> of it today
> > >> over the DEFLATIONARY
> > >> ("Hello, Japan !") PPI numbers coming out of the statistical mills ?
> > >>
> > >> Non-healthcare related businesses have no pricing power....
> > >> and no volume revenue growth....
> > >> all they can do is cut payroll and cut costs.
> > >>
> > >> Ultimate solution is to cut government spending and reduce government
> > >> size....so that taxes can be reduced.
> > >>
> > >> Yeah, right. NOT IN THIS LIFETIME.
> >
> >
> >
> > KR> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > KR> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >
> >
> >
> > KR> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
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>
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