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Attached is updated weekly chart from my October 27 post. The expected
secondary decline has yet to materialize, however price is well on way to
38-50% retracement targets. Ordinarily one would expect the correction of a
5 wave decline to take the form of an ABC retracing 38-50% in price and 38%
(minimum) in time. The incredible steepness of this rally leads me to
believe that something else may be afoot, however until proven otherwise, we
should still expect to see a B wave retracement followed by a C wave rally.
The bear market should then be expected to resume.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: "Earl Adamy" <eadamy@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Realtraders" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; "LwSide1"
<lwside1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, October 27, 2001 11:11 AM
Subject: [lwside1] Case for the bulls?
> I believe that the long term bear case remains in excellent shape. That
> said, I am beginning to see some signs that give me pause in making
shorter
> term bearish bets. This does not mean that the short term bullish case is
> strong, but rather the short term bearish case appears to have weakened
> leaving open the possibility that the next months will see a secondary low
> and a higher high. A review of charts at previous panic lows suggests that
> the 21Sep low is likely to be retested within 35+- days or not later than
> 09Nov.
>
> Now for a bit of fun!
>
> The attached weekly SP500 continuous unadjusted futures chart suggests an
> intriguing scenario. Technical work performed on the weekly chart months
> prior to September 11 suggested a price target of 1041 (call it 1000-1050)
> for completion of the initial 5 wave decline. One would expect this to be
> followed by a rally ... quite likely an ABC correction of 38%-50% lasting
a
> minimum of 38% of the time in decline. The events of September 11 set off
a
> panic decline to 939 which overshot the target quite a bit.
>
> While one typically watches retracements from the real low (left hand
> retracement column) it may be worth watching retracements from the typical
> (projected 1041) low (right hand column). When retracements are measured
> from the typical low, the rally is seen to be much less powerful than when
> measured from the real low and there is far more room for an upside
> retracement which does not negate the primary bear trend.
>
> Just a bit of out-of-the-box thinking which might just go a bit toward
> explaining market behavior for the past several weeks. Thoughts?
>
> Earl
>
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>
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