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My preferred scenario is for the present 4 and 20 year cycles to conclude in
about a year.
In the meantime, the market appears to be bottoming in association with a
cluster if shorter term cycles. A pullback to a higher low would confirm
that 3, 6, and 9 month lows are in place. A double bottom would be OK.
Bears may not have gone into hibernation for the winter yet. A year ago,
this cycle low was overwhelmed; it could happen again.
The challenge for Bulls is to break out above the resistance presented by
April lows. Then they just have to contend with resistance around 1525,
1650, 1800 and 1950 for starters (basis the NASDAQ 100).
A quick look at the NASDAQ 100 BIG SIX:
MSFT - significant accumulation; a pull back could present opportunity
INTC - some longer term accumulation
QCOM - net distribution on the rally; the weakest stock of the six
CSCO - accumulation on rally from low
ORCL - accumulation on rally from low
AMGN - less than exciting, but no serious distribution
Among NASDAQ 100 stocks: GILD, which has run to a new high, shows the
greatest distribution -- followed by BBBY, which continues to rally.
Distribution is not a great timing device, but it does suggest that the risk
of jumping into these stocks now is relatively high.
The chart looks dangerous enough. If the market can break to new lows, the
next major support is around 800. However, the overall level of accumulation
among individual NASDAQ 100 stocks suggests that a drop to new lows near
term is not highly probable. Ben may very well have it right.
Stan
-----Original Message-----
From: profitok [mailto:profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Tuesday, October 16, 2001 4:46 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Cc: Vincent DONOVAN
Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq buy/sell
Yes it means that it is now SAFE to go back into 401K and IRA etc
this is a 10 week m/a of buying pressure which is NOW (as of Fri close)
LARGER then the selling pressure....
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