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Last will and testiment from me on this thread. One chart and one quote.
Someone sent this COT report to me. Attached is a chart of the NYA with its
McClellan issue and volume oscillators along with a 9 day Polarized Fractal
Efficiency Ratio indicator. No bullishness or bearishness implied, but you
can infer whatever your mindset tells you.
"
The latest Commitments of Traders report shows Commercial Hedgers continued
to cover their open shorts this past week, buying back 4,612 S&P contracts.
This brings their net short position to -38,755 contracts, about the same
level they held two weeks prior to the May 22 top in the S&P futures. If the
pattern repeats, we will see Commercials start to sell into the final run-up
in prices, positioning for the next down leg. Over in the Nasdaq pit,
Commercials continued to short aggressively as the NDZ rallied, selling
2,362 contracts and bringing their net short position to a near
record -13,358 contracts. This action suggests that the smart money is
betting on the Nasdaq bear market continuing for some time. Commercials
continued to buy the Dow, adding 2,048 contracts to bring their net long
position up to 14,679. But as we've mentioned before, Commercial activity in
the Dow has had little effect on price movement so far, so we don't place a
great deal of significance on the fact that they continue to maintain a
bullish stance. "
----- Original Message -----
From: "profitok" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, October 14, 2001 4:16 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] distribution?/nasdaq/sp500
> Hello You are all correct,,(Bob r Don T and BobskC,,)
> We most likely will make the highest hi on Monday,,(highest means
taking
> out the pervious 4 day hi in the SP)
> this is mostly because the 2 generals in the NASDAQ intc and MSFT
will
> have positive and negative effects,,
> The NASDAQ is also having a tough time advancing,, and most likely will
> stall for a day or 2(and the SP. AFTER making this top)
> However it will continue higher,, And so will sp500,,
> the NASDAQ should get to 1800 and SP. top 1150
> The only fly in the soup could be expiration,, which Most likely Will
> effect timing
> This week is NOT a good week to trade,, Just catch up on your list of
> things to do (and make that spouse happy)
> the REAL trend should be more evident AFTER expiration
> BE warned and be careful
> Ben
> p.s the score that BobR posted is not magic,, it is just a
sophisticated
> way to measure the market,, True buying and selling pressure
> the data required is trin,, new hi new low ,, up/down volume,, and
> up/down issues,,
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2001 4:18 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] Gen - distribution?
>
>
> > I did a little shorting on Thursday at the close and covered Friday
> mid-day
> > .. I was ready to take another short position or two at the close Friday
> > but it's all just too neat. Everyone agrees. Everyone. Be they
> > chartists, star watchers, fundamentalists or wave riders, they all agree
> we
> > are headed to new lows or at least a retest and we are going to do this
> > right away. Such consolidation of sentiment scares the hell out of me
so
> I
> > went into the weekend mostly in cash. (One oil stock, one biomed, one
> gold
> > issue and 85% cash). Even after all my years of trading, I am
clueless
> > right now and when I'm confused, I'm in cash. Why isn't DIS $8 a
> > share? Why isn't CCL $9 a share and how could it go up into that mess
on
> > Friday? This old dude is going to have to watch for a while count his
> > chips until the hand becomes clearer.
> >
> > All best next week folks,
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> > At 04:00 PM 10/13/01 -0400, you wrote:
> > >The only thing is that divergence often leads to another higher high...
> Also
> > >time is involved.This thing could go even more.. Not disagreeing with
you
> > >persay, it is difficult to model accumulation and distribution, except
on
> a
> > >cumulative basis on each stock of the index.
> > >For the second week in a row, the futures were bought in the dead
period
> of
> > >the day at near average price for the week, That looks to me like
people
> are
> > >working it on the bullish side.
> > >
> > >It might be that no one is selling for the moment.
> > >
> > >Don Thompson
> > >
> > >----- Original Message -----
> > >From: "BobR" <bobrabcd@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > >Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2001 3:22 PM
> > >Subject: [RT] Gen - distribution?
> > >
> > >
> > > > One argument for the notion that the last 7 trading days were more
> > > > distributive than accumulative is found in Ben's Profit Taking
> > > > Index(proprietary). The PTI configuration looks the same for the
OEX
> and
> > > > NASDAQ even though all the data is totally different. A sell
> divergence
> > > > between the indexes and the PTI's is seen on both charts.
> > > >
> > > > bobr
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
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> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
> >
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> >
> >
>
>
>
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