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Re: [RT] GEN - market timing



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I would not want to bet on more than a 3 to 5 day bounce initially if even
that on the first probe of the Correction level(count Friday as day one of
the bounce).  Going back to 4th quarter of 1997, such hits on the C level
beget retests within days of the first strike.  It would not be surprising
to see another test next week....perhaps at a higher low giving us that
divergence clue...that is optimistically speaking.  I would want to see at
least two thrusts down before concluding its over. The CumST(magenta) which
is the Technical Index as defined in that TASC article is working within a
rising channel and is currently in a down cycle.  The NewHigh - New Low
component is a sensitive one at the turns and it is still headed down.  If
we can look to the options market for a clue, then Friday's PV hit the
"Shallow Threshold Buy" level.  It hasn't hit the Bollenger level of twice
the ten day average but that is rarely hit anyway.  The halfway level is hit
much more often at the short term reversals.  From the Bottom Detector on
the PV chart it looks darn close to being a decent trading low but there is
historical precidence for a bit more washout.  Bottomline, I would wait for
the retest next week and re-evaluate.

bobr


----- Original Message -----
From: <candlestyk@xxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, June 16, 2001 8:26 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] GEN - market timing


>
> > Don, here is an expanded view of the chart showing the detail of
> Thursday
> > and Friday.  The data window is for 6/14 and shows the SuperT
> oscillator
> > at -99.61.  Then intraday Friday it plunged below the Correction
> level and
> > reversed to close at -20.58.  The code comes from William Mason's
> concepts
>
> Bob,
>   Does the "Correction Level" signal an end to the correction, or
> does it indicate (predict) more downside?
>
> Thanks,
> Ray
>
>
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