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On Saturday, June 02, 2001, 10:49:07 AM, Don Thompson wrote:
DT> ZeeTrader, You said something that is important, and DeltaTrader
DT> proved it in his response to my question about how he can
DT> reconcile a delta "failure" or how he can determine how to trade
DT> his way into and out of a Delta point.
His 'proof' has nothing to do with the question of prediction greater
than chance.
I was not discussing how to trade delta points. The question is simply
one of math - does delta predict turning points better than chance, or
not. This has nothing to do with trading, although the outcome will
help determine the utility of delta for trading.
I would again like to distinguish mathematical analysis from trading
or even trading simulations - they are quite different.
DT> I guess what I am trying to say, is take any astro point, Say the
DT> X high on 1/01/01 is 18 degrees separation of travel by Uranu
DT> from a previous high. You you take all 18 degree separations from
DT> that point and I can almost bet you aren't going to get an 80%
DT> correlation on exact. So you have to resort to +- .5 degrees or
DT> what ever and use your observation of price to manage a situation.
If you widen the window even more, you can get 100% correlation. :-) I
suggest asking another question: is the prediction better than chance?
This will be a better measure of the utility of a technique, IMHO.
I'd love to see a mathematical (not charts) stat analysis of a
non-moon astro trading technique. I've been asking for one for a long
time.
ztrader
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