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Most of you know that I'm addicted to
"Turning Points" and
"Pattern Identification
Numbers".
How many of you have realized the real
benefit of such an
approach when we attempt to derive
MEANINGFUL statistics about
the behavior of markets around some well
know patterns.
A rising triangle, assuming that we mean
that the lower
line used in drawing the triangle is
rising, is explicitly
defined by the 4 points which <FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>go to make up what I call a #8
pattern. (There is a lot more
information about pattern
identification numbers on my web
site.) If that definition
is not correct the what I say <FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>below only fits with respect
to generic triangles.
Therefore, it is very easy to examine
information about such
triangles. The attached two pictures
show just a very small
zone of prices in the DJIA.
However, if we have 3 out of 3 failures to
break out on the
upside of a rising triangle then in order
for us to have a
95% success rate, the next 60 times a
triangle appeared the
breakout would have to be to the
upside.
Clyde
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Clyde
Lee
Chairman/CEO (Home of
SwingMachine)SYTECH
Corporation email: <A
href="mailto:clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>clydelee@xxxxxxxxxxxx 7910
Westglen, Suite 105
Office: (713) 783-9540Houston, TX
77063
Fax: (713) 783-1092Details
at:
www.theswingmachine.com- - - -
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Timothy
Morge
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 21:42
Subject: Re: [RT] No evidence for lower
NASDAQ yet
Haytham:I have to call you on this one. On your gif
you claim a failure rate of only 5 pct of an upside triangle
breakout?Errrr...You'll have to pull out some serious proof. Cause
that just ain't so. It ain't even close to single digits...in fact...well,
let's just say it ain't in that ballpark.Best,Tim
Morge
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