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Re: [RT] Long Term Look at DJIA



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At 12:33 PM -0500 4/27/01, Clyde Lee wrote:

>Today I was looking at some longer term things and in
>scanning the DJIA I got the impression that earlier in
>the prior century we had a very long term bull market
>with a few minor interruptions and then some stagnation.

Don't forget inflation if you are looking at long term.

The attached chart shows the DJIA normalized by the consumer price
index. As you can see, we near the top of the barely sloping channel.

The last two times we were at the top of the channel, long-term
investors who bought there had to wait nearly 20 years to 
break-even on their purchasing power.

I wouldn't be surprised if we moved back toward the bottom of the
channel.

Bob Fulks
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