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Thanks
Don. That is some very nice work. It would be nice if this is the
low for the bear. Guess we will know pretty soon.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Jimmy
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Don Ewers
[mailto:dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Friday, March 02, 2001 6:00
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT] Re:
NDX question/ Nasdaq answerJimmy.I went back to
an old NASDAQ composite chart that is tracking well, so I amreposting it
and have added some commentary in this leg down which mightcomplete the
move. The second chart is a blowup of the first to show the"final action
area" that may unfold.First notice the major wave 4 retracement (blue
circle July 2000) stoppedexactly at a .618 retracement of major wave 2
(blue circle March 2000) tomajor wave 3 (blue circle May 2000). Also
notice it had an ABC structurewhich I prefer to see) as sign we have
something working here.From there we started out with what has turned
out to be an "extended wave5" down which the MOB off the previous major
wave 3 (blue circle May 2000)caught well in price but not in time (black
vertical bars on that MOB),another sign perhaps that this was going to be
an extended wave 5 (agrinder).Minor wave 4 of major wave 5 (4:5)
gave off a "fooler" buy signal buy(January 2001 "January effect") breaking
the 6/4 ma channels, but "it wasantimatter at the time" that is was
possibly only a minor wave 4 of majorwave 5 (since no "good" minor wave 4
had shown itself in this extendedmovement) not a breakout (there is always
one more drop isn't there for ustraders no matter what the
commodity?).We are next potentially heading down to the next MOB off
of the minor wave 3(early January 2001) of major 5 (3:5) which ends in the
1918 to 1822 areaand the timing marks are 3/7/01 to 3/30/01. Since this
has been such anextended move I have even thrown in the possibility we may
get a subminorwave 4 rally of minor 5 of big Wave 5 (blue circle). The
3/1/01 low possiblywas the end of subminor 3 of minor 5 of major 5
(3:5:5)perhaps?Anything can happen from here and one needs to be
careful about trying toget too finite, but this all "bears" watching since
the count prior to thishas tracked well. We could head down there in a
hurry (washout) or buyingcomes in and we don't quite get there. Selling
"some" puts on ones you don'treally mind owning, for the "real" long haul
might make some sense becausethey all do not bottom on a single day
normally.The 6/4 ma channels might be a clue on the blow up chart and
I am listingthe levels below for as many days as the offset show and will
update ifthings continue to track. Keep in mind you are looking for a
close above theblue upper ma channel, then the take out of the high of
that bar. At thatpoint the red ma channel becomes the stop out point. You
also have theoption if the signal occurs to wait hopefully for a
retracement which wouldnarrow your stop to the red 6/4 ma channel line. Or
using the upperregression channel as the signal if there is a close above
it and a take ofthe high of that bar the following day, a bit more
"aggressive" approach.Lastly remember they never make it easy, so as
mentioned above this could bethe last "fooler" a subminor 4 of minor wave
5 of major 5. If stopped outdon't forget to take the "next signal" also as
long as this MOB area appearsto be holding. I will take both since there
is no way of
telling.Date
Blue 6/4 ma Channel Red 6/4 ma
channel
Regressionchannel3/2/01
2353
225822823/5/01
2327
222722503/6/01
2292
219522223/7/01
2264
21642190We could get a very tradable rally out of here, and as
always with EW thequestion becomes is this 5 wave sequence the end or just
the end of big wave3 on the weekly and after a rally, (if it comes) there
is another leg downor "shoe" to drop so to speak (maybe into August as
some have suggested),assuming the economy does not recover or the
perception of one at least, ora double bottom?I hope this helps
someone, good luck and good trading,don ewers----- Original
Message -----From: "Jimmy" <jsnowden@xxxxxxxxx>To: "Realtraders"
<realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Tuesday, February 27, 2001 11:13
AMSubject: [RT] Re: NDX question> Recent posts didn't see
much upside to the rally. What I see on the NDX> chart leads me
to think we have a better chance of a nice tradable upside> move than
the continuation of the decline.>> Do any of the Elliott Wave
technicians see this or is another significant> down move pretty much
needed?>>> Jimmy>>> To unsubscribe
from this group, send an email to:>
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>>>> Your
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