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Bill -
I agree, that is not an island reversal (both gaps are already
filled, though the first was not an overlap.
Note that the NYSE Composite is just below one possible version of a
symmetric triangle going back to the October 18 low (we did trade
above it at the recent highs as well, so it is not perfect). I still
view sub-600 levels likely there.
As for S&P and bonds, I see bonds challenging and possibly moving
below the previous low at 101:31 March basis and then running to new
highs. I have a turn date in the S&P for around Feb. 27/28. However,
that seems a bit too close for comfort and that timeframe does not
look right for European stocks, or for that matter my expectations
for new highs in US and German bond futures. So, either we continue
sideways to lower in stocks until May, or I am wrong and bonds
continue to puke. If we bottom in stocks next week, bonds should get
crushed. Only time will tell.
By the way, though I expect the Nikkei to tumble one last time in the
very short-term, it is about time for that market to turn sharply
higher. I am worried about the dollar possibly rallying anyway, but
the Nikkei, once it bottoms near 11K will easily out perform the US
going forward.
Steve Poser
--- In realtraders@xxxx, "t-bondtrader" <t-bondtrader@xxxx> wrote:
> Don
>
> When I posted the S&P chart I forgot to post the Bonds one, so here
it is. As I said, it is by no means the classic island, but I think
it might just portend lower prices at this point. If it does, then
perhaps the Spoo will rally...
>
> Anyway, I have often found that these formations, while they may
only allow for a river rather than a channel, as it were, can be
helpful. As I have often said before, for one who is day trading,
it is perhaps worth a short term punt on the puts, but what you EW
boys can make of it may prove very otherwise.
>
> As usual the market will tell us...
>
> Bill
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