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The money supply is accelerating at a rapid pace. Interest rates are
falling at a record pace. they say that inflation is stagnant, yet the
cost of living is accelerating at a rapid pace. There is an increase in
job lay offs and yet there is pricing pressure on wages. I think the
Fed will soon be caught between a rock and a hard place.
many months ago I gave the bracket for the dow at 10,000 to 11,000.
those parameters seem to be holding. What can we expect next? Market
psychology says that the market looks ahead 2 quarters. the fall in
stock prices that started last March foretold what happened at the end
of the year. If there is to be a recovery at the end of 2001, then now
is the time for the markets to start to rally. If this bear is to be
protracted, then look for a fierce short covering rally and then a
blowout to the downside that will cause the die hard, buy the dips,
mentality to give up the ship.
I am not a fundamentalist, but even a technical person has to look at
the underbelly once in a while. have a good week. Ira.
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