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This is a definite factor as is a high probability of low volume the rest
of the holiday season. For me, I don't have to play for the next ten days
and since I'm not comfortable with further blind selling or a realization
of value that has been created, I'm going to watch my one holding and maybe
peel off a few 8ths on scalps just to pay for some beers and relax.
Another factor to not rush to buy now is that the big houses are going to
have funds to go in after the first of the year and they'd love to put em
in on the cheap. I really don't have an opinion over the next few trading
days but I know there are too many factors split on both sides for me to
get involved beyond the above mentioned scalping.
Happy Holidays to all ..
Bob
At 08:45 PM 12/20/00 -0500, you wrote:
>Bob -
>
>One thing that worries me and what may also be driving us lower is that
>there are still funds with lots of capital gains in there from purchases
>made a couple of years ago. As people sell, they must take those gains. With
>distributions going on, lots of selling going on to avoid the distributions.
>I know I have done that and am waiting one more day for another fund that
>will distribute. Until you cannot sell to avoid this tax consequence, we can
>go lower. That is s-t of course, and I suspect we have a good January and
>maybe even post-Christmas, but not jumping up and down to buy yet. I hate to
>catch a falling piano!
>
>Steve
>
>---
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>http://www.poserglobal.com
>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Tel: 201-995-0845
>Fax: 201-995-0846
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Steven W. Poser (psn) [mailto:sposer@xxxxxxx]
>Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 8:40 PM
>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: RE: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
>
>
>I agree with you here Bob. Though I see lower s-t, being short now is only
>for day traders. Long-term still looks ugly to me however. That said, if we
>wash out big time further in next couple of days, I suspect that we should
>find any cash left over and buy. Wash out requires at least low-1200s and
>maybe worse for S&P and 2115 or worse for NAZ. Ya know, I asked CNBC this
>summer if they would do another NASDAQ 2000 special when we got there. They
>never answered me. Wonder why? I was willing to guest host the show. Maybe
>that is why they haven't had me back!
>
>---
>Steven W. Poser, President
>Poser Global Market Strategies Inc.
>http://www.poserglobal.com
>swp@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Tel: 201-995-0845
>Fax: 201-995-0846
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: BobsKC [mailto:bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
>Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 8:11 PM
>To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
>Subject: Re: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
>
>
>And doom spread throughout the land .. lower indicates lower and when lower
>is reached it indicates lower than lower will be reached. Just remember
>when it was so "cool" to be with the "in crowd" and wave the bear flag in
>the midst of the high tech insanity? Well friends, the hordes are with the
>flag wavers now and just as you knew the markets were never so easy as to
>just buy and wait, they are not so easy as to just sell and wait, either.
>When I see someone say there is only an 18% chance of something happening,
>I cringe. Such belief in further moves in the same direction is a sure
>sign of a near term reversal.
>
>For me, I'm in RRC and cash ... I covered some shorts today and will do no
>further shorting until we mount a rally sufficient to cause short term
>memory loss of the recent toss of bath water, baby and nanny. I may miss
>some opportunity but feel that the risk/reward in most short positions is
>not sufficient until the froth is off the bear muzzle.
>
>Bob
>
>
>At 07:12 PM 12/20/00 -0500, you wrote:
>>Hi Ben,
>>
>>In my statistical work there is only a 18% chance of a higher high tomorrow
>>in the NYSE/S&P Futures and 72% chance of a Lower Low. So I would be
>>inclined to see further down side.
>>
>>Most of the days in the past like today resulted in a doji at the close of
>>Thursday with the dead cat bounce, Ben is talking about, starting on
>Friday.
>>Only one out of 11 showed a reverse dead cat bounce, more like the piano
>>crashing through a couple of floors and landing on the concrete sidewalk
>>kind of trend.
>>
>>
>>Don Thompson
>>
>>
>>
>>----- Original Message -----
>>From: <proffittak@xxxxxxx>
>>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>>Sent: Wednesday, December 20, 2000 5:38 PM
>>Subject: Re: [RT] Margin calls and bottoms
>>
>>
>>> In a message dated 12/20/00 4:27:49 PM Eastern Standard Time, ist@xxxxxx
>>> writes:
>>>
>>> << Do we get a violent Christmas rally for a couple of days?
>>> Does fear overcome greed and those speculators who loved the 90s look
>>> elsewhere to place their funds? Is the tax selling over? Will fund
>>> redemptions afford greater pressure on the markets? Will the influx of
>>> 401K and other retirement funds give us the ever famous January effect?
>>> Will those giant brokerage firms start laying off people and cutting
>>> bonuses? Just look at the charts, the complete story will unfold
>>> there. Have a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. Ira.
>>> >>
>>> hello
>>>
>>> my work suggests a dead cat bounce to an intra day hi of 2750 by Fri
>>> or Monday
>>> then
>>> by next Fri 12/28-12/29 intra day low will be UNDER 2000 NASDAQ
>>> BE CAREFUL
>>> happy healthy and wealthy year
>>> Ben
>>>
>>>
>>> To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>>> realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>>To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
>>realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
>>
>>
>>
>>
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