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The Gartley has very specific boundary
conditions, including:
AB = CD, where AB and CD are the legs of a
zigzag
BC will be in the range of .382-.786 of AB
(fibonacci ratios)
AD will retrace .618 or .786 (but no more
than 1.00) of XA, where X is the starting point of the
Gartley
Time projection for D is less precise and
only has to be in fibonacci proportion - sort of a wild
card.
By eye, it looks like you meet the AB = CD
requirement, but I am not sure about the BC and AD
retracements.
Many users of these patterns permit the
above to be relaxed, including similar requirements for the Butterfly
pattern. It is important to note, however, that relaxing these conditions
reduces the probability for a reversal by an unknown amount. When these
conditions are met, the reversal statistics are about 80% for both the Gartley
and Butterfly. Personally, given the uncertainty of the statistics when
conditions are not met, I only consider patterns that meet all of the criteria
and use other methodologies when this is not the case.
The attached is my Gartley (in terms of
yield) for the 30 year bond updated through last night.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From:
Stig O
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, December 08, 2000 10:26
AM
Subject: Sv: [RT] FW: NASDAQ turning
point Dec 8 at 2230 ==> or 3200 ?
>-----Oprindelig
meddelelse-----<Fra: Bill DuBroff <<A
href="mailto:wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx";>wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx><Til:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
<<A
href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx><Dato:
6. december 2000 16:35<Emne: Re: [RT] FW: NASDAQ turning
point Dec 8 at 2230 ==> or 3200 ?
<The attached is the roadmap that I
have been following over the intermediate term. Short term looking for a
rally into the first of the year to the <3700 area.
<Bill
Speaking of GARTLEY, could this be a Gartley 222 in weekly
Bonds?
(Bearish)
StigTo
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