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<A
href="http://markpoyser.com";>Wall
Street Follies
40 Bear
Types
<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="90%"
bgColor=#ffffff border=1>
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>1
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Apocalypse Bear
Thinks global economy will
collapse due to total charade organized and controlled by The Powers
That Be. Predicts massive inflation followed by repudiation of fiat
currency, or worldwide deflation (take your pick). Looks to
political events for clues about the future. Was hoping Y2K would be
more eventful than it turned out to be.
Holds gold stocks and some
bear funds. Isn't quite ready to commit to shorting or buying puts.
Waiting for confirmation. In the meantime has stocked up on food and
water, 'just in case it gets real bad'.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>2
<FONT
face=Arial size=2>Credit Crisis Bear
Reads complicated essays
about esoteric financial issues. Concerned about low savings rates,
trade deficits, the yield curve, bond market hijinks, bank
overextension, and the money supply. Has seen so much negative data
over the past four years, it's hard to detect any real signal
anymore.
Tends to play with broad
market instruments as opposed to individual stocks. Hasn't lost
shirt.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>3
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Weary Bear
Expects high P/E stocks to
come back to earth when fundamentals reassert themselves. Once was
an enthusiastic bear (say in 1997, 8, and 9). Has witnessed the
market stall and dip, only to blast off again, several times.
Significantly burned with worthless puts or short squeezes more than
once. Has developed an exquisite sense for the market. Won't get
fooled again. Mostly in the market for
revenge.
Pops in and out of bear funds
and occasional put/shorts. Is waiting for the right time, at which
time will pile on and ride the market down. Is not expecting a
crash, but wouldn't be surprised if it happened.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>4
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Trading Bear
Looks for stocks to bounce
around but generally head south. Feels that Technical Analysis is
the way to go most of the time. Has been a survivor (unlike some
vanquished Weary Bears) because of nimble trading and tight
stops.
Daytrades or week-trades. Has
had some successes, but also some losses in the last three years. Is
likely to short-cover a little too soon if the Big One
hits.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>5
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>New Bear
Just showed up and doesn't
understand why old-time bears (listed above) aren't gung-ho about an
immediate market decline. Hasn't experienced a snap-back rally.
Hasn't owned a double-inverse Nasdaq fund, but thinks it's
attractive. Hasn't shorted or held puts, been in the money, only to
have some meatball analyst talk up stocks prior to expiration
Friday. May be in for some rude surprises.
Soon will choose what kind of
bear to be. Many become Trading Bears. Others split into Apocalypse,
Credit Crisis, and Weary Bear categories.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>6
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Smart Bear
Avoided the NASDAQ for the
most part. Managed to short those stocks which were part of the
'stealth' bear market. Most likely a fundamentalist who also was
aware of the great risks in betting against a momentum
sector.
Moves in for gains only after
clear and convincing evidence appears for earnings problems and
lack of market enthusiasm.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>7
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Information Overload Bear
Has read Fleckenstein and
Tice for years. Paid attention to Barton Biggs, Alan Abelson, and
Jim Grant. Knows all the arguments regarding market overvaluation.
Owns a dog-eared copy of The Great Crash.
Not much. It's like, "If all
these guys are correct, how come the market hasn't collapsed yet?"
Bears sound convincing, but reality has been different - so
far.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>8
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Lucky Bear
Believed to be
extinct.
Unknown.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>9
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Angry Bear
Is hopping mad at the
outrageous P/E for EBAY. Incredulous about multi-billion market caps
for 'blue sky' startups. Rants about optical, biotech, fuel-cells,
and other passing fads.
Makes a lot of noise, but
hasn't put too much money at risk yet. Deep down, this bear senses
that as insane as this market is, no amount of hectoring will change
it.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>10
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Frustrated Bear
Thinks the market is
overvalued, but not quite sure by how much. Tends to be long for the
most part - or in low yield but safe instruments. Wants to
participate in a bear feast, but frankly can't see the right
opportunity. Thinks puts are always too expensive.
Will not do much even in a
bear market. Watches the situation closely, but feels that it's too
risky going short.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>11
CNBC
Bear
Has called for a market
decline as far back as anyone can remember. Is usually a guest on
CNBC for the bulls to make fun of.
Issues standard remarks about
being in cash, or to lighten up on stocks that have gained 400% over
the last year. Everybody ignores the advice.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>12
Wall
$treet Week Bear
Currently banished from the
show. The last one seen there, Gail Dudak, was tossed from the Elves
Index in 1999.
Plots Louis Rukeyser's
demise.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>13
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Sleeping Bear
Figures it's not worth gaming
this market.
Hibernates until a recession
shows up.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>14
Rabid
Bear
'Knows' the market will drop
starting tomorrow.
Goes whole hog against the
market. Indescriminately buys puts, and shorts momentum stocks
while they are rising. Approximate life span for this species
has been nine months.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>15
Naked
Bear
Confident of limited upside
in selected stocks. A more aggressive (and foolish - if you can
believe it) version of Rabid Bear.
Writes naked calls during
bull markets. Is destined for bankruptcy in short order. Will lose
shirt, shorts, and everything else.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>16
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Half-hearted Bear
Variant of Trading Bear.
Talks the bear talk, but deep down isn't fully committed. Lacks
conviction. It's the same problem (only in reverse) that perma-bears
have when they try to be bullish.
Will play the short side, but
tends to put more money on the table for upside
moves.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>17
Bear
Rug
Is disgusted with Wall Street
and isn't an active trader. No money left. Got badly burned shortly
after one crisis (Asia, Russia, LTCM, or '98 tech slump) by betting
on further declines, only to see the Federal Reserve step in and
save the day. May have also lost big during the wild ride of
Nov99-Mar00. Would like to have lunch with Julian Robertson
someday.
Writes angry letters to Alan
Greenspan. Refuses to watch CNBC anymore. Uses business section of
newspaper to train dog or line birdcage.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>18
Happy
Bear
Cheerful. Loves life.
Believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. Thinks Maria
Bartiromo is terrific.
Currently on medication under
a doctor's supervision.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>19
Bogus
Bear
Is a bull - no doubt about
it.
Shows up on bearish message
boards and raises hell until chased away by the system
administrator.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>20
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Bear-to-be
Currently a bull. Will remain
so until bear market is fully established. Then it will be to
late.
Follows the crowd. Pays
attention to Peter Lynch, Joe Battipaglia, and Henry Blodget. Does
whatever Abby Cohen advises.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>21
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Loudmouth Bear
Bearish for a number of
reasons: Technical Analysis, Fundamentals, Market Mood. Doesn't
really matter.
Hangs out on Yahoo boards and
engages in fiery debates with believers in the New Era. POSTS IN ALL
CAPS.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>22
Bear
Cub
Lifetime bearish orientation
being shaped by parents' gloomy estimation of the markets. That will
be a great asset or a great liability - depending on what
actually happens when the critter reaches adulthood.
Can't wait to be old enough
to open a brokerage account and short QCOM (or its
equivalent).
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>23
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Sweating Bear
Terrified that another
melt-up is in the offing. Only a couple of days earlier had
committed substantial funds to the short side. Now very worried due
to 'froth talk' about pending mergers, money-on-the-sidelines coming
back, 401k inflows, Fed easing, any speech by Greenspan, or
BLS reports.
Closes all short positions at
market open. In the past, this has often been the right thing to do,
but is developing a stimulus/reaction response that may be a
handicap in the future.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>24
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Relieved Bear
One horrible short play
cancelled out by another that went well. Wonders why bother at all
with this nonsense.
That evening, goes out with
friends or family for a good time. Might have a few drinks as
well.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>25
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Smiling Bear
Feeling pretty good about
recent successes.
Bought some out-of-the-money
puts a week before Company X warned, and has a ten-bagger as a
result. Looking for another firm with a similar profile in order to
try it again.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>26
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Perma-Bear
Only likes stocks trading
below book value and with P/E's under 5. Favors large cap consumer
non-durables. Considers Warren Buffett too much of a risk
taker.
Avoids tech like the plague.
Loves bonds. Portfolio has appreciated by 2% (on an annual basis)
over the last decade. Unlikely to actively bet against the market,
despite feeling that it's a bubble destined to burst.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>27
Elliot Wave
Bear
Charts up a storm. Can count
up to five (according to studies at the University of Michigan).
Keeps portrait of Leonardo Pisano Fibonacci in den. Bed has
length:width ratio of 1.618*
* Golden ratio, Phi [<FONT
face=Symbol size=2>f]
Does quite well at times, but
may find market transition points (churning) hard to resolve one way
or another. Runs risk of being whipsawed. It is not known if Elliot
Wave Bears and Elliot Wave Bulls are distinct species - though most
experts suspect that is the case.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>28
Scared
S***less Bear
Shorted a stock at 120 only
to see it run up to 160. Hoping for a market reversal. Either that,
or an asteroid to hit Manhattan before the margin call comes
in.
Does not 'do it' in
the woods. Is frozen into inaction, hoping for an exit point that
never seems to materialize. Good candidate for a peptic
ulcer.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>29
New Era
Bear
No such thing. A
contradiction in terms.
n/a
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>30
Kodak
Bear
Sub-species of Kodiak
Bear.
Shorted EK in '99 and in '00.
Recently gobbled up profits faster than its fellow bears eat salmon
in summer.
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>31
401k
Bear
Only significant funds are in
401k plan. By law, options may not be purchased, nor can stocks be
shorted. Must look to the few inverse-market mutual funds as the
best alternative.
Buys PrudentBear (BEARX),
BearGuard, ProFunds (USPIX, URPIX), or Rydex/Arktos (RYAIX, RYURX)
funds.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>32
QQQ
Bear (aka
Q-Bear)
Focuses on the Nasdaq-100
trust, though may also get involved with specific stocks from time
to time. Likes the fact that the Q's average out much of the noise
and unpredictability that accompanies individual
securities.
Daytrades. Plays the Q's
directly, or may try options. Has to watch things pretty closely at
times since volatility remains fairly large, even for an index. Even
though a bear in general orientation, has to go long occasionally
'cause that's where the index seems to be headed at
times.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>33
S&P
Bear
Like QQQ Bear, but prefers
working the Standard and Poor's indices.
Similar to QQQ
Bear.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>34
Virgin
Bear
Innocent as they come. Has
actually made trades based on Alan Abelson's column. Probably
shorted a bit of AOL for a small profit, and thinks playing the
downside isn't all that troubling. Hasn't experienced a short
squeeze yet.
Pays no attention to Short
Ratio, Shares Outstanding vs. Float, Shares Short as Percent of
Float. Will be paying attention in the near future.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>35
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Logical Bear
On endangered species list
during times of irrational exuberance. Prior history shows an
ability for the population to recover sharply during market
downturns.
Is a fundamentalist for the
most part. Tends not to take big risks. Unexciting player to watch.
Owns a copy of Graham and Dodd's Security Analysis, and will
be happy to discuss it with you over dinner. (You, of course,
politely decline the invitation.)
<FONT
face=Arial color=#ffffff size=2>Type
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Outlook
<FONT face=Arial
color=#ffffff size=2>Does
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>36
<FONT
face=Arial size=2>International Bear
Obsessed with the Japanese
Yen, British Pound, Mexican Peso, and the Greek Drachma. Likes the
idea of a Currency Board for 'those countries that lack self
discipline'. Sees economic strength in terms of exchange rates. Is
frankly baffled by the poor showing of the Euro.
Does a little currency
futures trading at times, but for the most part buys and sells
equities in overseas bourses.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>37
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Vindicated Bear
Relief that much of the pain
and suffering endured during the 1990's seems to be finally over.
Though there have been big losses during that time, the fact that
the New Era has lost its sheen, provides some solace. Always thought
Greenspan was way too cavalier about the fact that "we may
be in a bubble".
Can't help saying, "I told
you so," when dot-coms that traded as high as $100 are now going for
$2 and change. Is not sympathetic at all to daytraders or margin
players that got hurt - but doesn't tease them either.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>38
<FONT
face=Arial size=2>21st Century Bear
A most fortunate creature.
Through luck or skill, didn't become a bear until the year 2000.
Missed out on all the 'fun' other bears experienced up to that
time.
Straightforward shorting and
puts on tech. Not a whole lot of analysis applied. To the amazement
of long time bears, most plays turn out to be big winners. (Sort of
the inverse of the buy-on-the-dips bull: can't lose when the trend
is your friend)
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>39
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Wandering Bear
Moves from Fundamental
Analysis to Technical Analysis to Market Mood to Astrological
Influences to whatever catches his fancy. Although a bear in
outlook, the failings of each school during the exuberant market
have made this bear keep looking for something to make sense of it
all.
Does the wrong thing at the
wrong time. Shorted during the wild run ups. Bought puts when the
market was stagnant. Tried to profit on the situation the day after
a big market drop, only to get socked by the snap-back
rally.
<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>40
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Media Bear
Cannot believe the television
ads for brokerage firms which feature people who wouldn't know a 10K
if it came up and if it bit them in the behind. Was stunned that
Schwab featured 18-year-old tennis player Anna Kournikova explaining
financial terms between sets. Incredulous that so many ads were
aired during the Superbowl. Considers the fact that Jeff Bezos was
Time's Man of the Year a good indicator that the world has gone
mad.
Avoids popular media. Only
watches PBS or reads back issues of Colliers.
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