Re: [RT] Elliott Wave

["Bill DuBroff" <wd78@xxxxxxxxxxxx>]

One can spend their life doing EW and not 
be any further along than those that use more traditional analysis.  I have 
yet to see any statistics that suggest that EW or NeoWave beats any other form 
of analysis.  Personally, I find that using EW as a supplement to 
traditional analysis, which in my work is controlling, is a good 
combination since it either reinforces or is neutral.
<BLOCKQUOTE 
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black">From: 
  <A title=scot.billington@xxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:scot.billington@xxxxxxxxxxxxx";>Scot Billington 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx";>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Friday, November 17, 2000 1:33 
  PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] Elliott Wave 
  Those of you who are beginning or contemplating studying EW 
  you my find myexperience helpful.I worked as an analyst using 
  primarily EW for seven years.  My job roughlyten hours a day was to 
  study EW and apply the counts to various markets.During this period I 
  would claim that I developed an above average toexcellent ability to apply 
  an EW count and alternates to a market within therules laid out in 
  Prechter's book.In my opinion while these counts did sometimes produce 
  Nostradomus-likemarket 'calls', they were not useful in making trading 
  decisions.  They werecloser to a neat magic trick than a trading 
  tool.  The major problem I havewith EW is who said the original 
  premise is valid in the first place.  Mr.Elliott made some grandiose 
  claims and offered up an interesting theory thatmakes some sense under the 
  heading of mass behavior.  This theory can not betested due to its 
  subjectivity.  I must choose between time frames, closeonly or bar 
  charts, continuous, Gann, or individual charts.  If I am using abar 
  chart, I must decide what makes a wave.  Due to this subjectivity, 
  thereis no way to test Elliott's original premise that the markets move in 
  fiveand three wave patterns.  Nor is there any way to test if the 
  patterns ofthe market must fit into the 13 (I think) different possible 
  patterns laidout.  So, basically, we have a gentleman making a claim 
  that can not beverified or refuted.Certainly, some moves have 
  ended on five waves, but they have to end onsomething.  And a move of 
  more than one wave must end in an odd number bydefinition.  A five 
  wave move with and extension can be five, nine,thirteen, seventeen etc. 
  waves.  Every other odd number.  Therefore, halfthe moves must 
  end in a five wave pattern.  Even if EW is not valid, I amgoing to be 
  'correct' with my five wave count 50% of the time.    The 
  methodallows moves to end on three waves with its irregulars or by the 
  largerpattern being A-B-C.  Therefore, I can end on three or five 
  with andextension in any of the waves of either.  That covers all the 
  bases.Undoubtedly, there are those who have claimed to have made money 
  trading theEW.  I would contend that while they made money (if indeed 
  they did), theymay not know WHY they made money.  EW may only 
  generate random entrysignals, but they may use strong exit strategies and 
  sound money management.By using strong exit techniques and good money 
  management, one can take arandom entry and make handsome profits.  
  Even if they use EW to make theirexit decisions, it is not necessarily the 
  EW count that makes thosestrategies strong.  Each part of the method 
  needs to be testedindependently, to show its effect.  EW can not be 
  tested in any way.Therefore, we can not know if it is or is not 
  valid.(A good example of someone who makes a ton of money, but does 
  not know whyis a hypothetical profitable floor trader.  Let's say he 
  makes $2 million ayear using method X.  Wow, method X must be 
  great.  But the floor tradertrades 2000 contracts per day 200 days 
  per year.  He also has the flooradvantage of buying at the bid and 
  selling at the offer.  The spread is 1tic each tic is worth $20, so 
  he makes $10 per contract vs. the value whichis between the bid and the 
  asked.  $10*2000*200=$4,000,000.  So, his edgeover the market is 
  not in method X; it is in the b/a spread.)Its is my opinion that a 
  beginner should look elsewhere for a tradingmethod.  If they are 
  completely intent on trying EW, I would suggest thatthey find a mentor who 
  has used EW to successfully make profits in themarket not to write a book, 
  although those are not necessarily mutuallyexclusive.  Furthermore, I 
  would take a hard look at the mentor's profits tosee if they are being 
  generated by something other than the EW counts.A note of 
  caution.  EW does allow one to make some remarkable marketpredictions 
  whether these occur randomly or not.  The method contends thatit has 
  figured out the secrets not only of the markets but of existence.These 
  predictions give one a feeling of omniscience and a surge of 
  power;therefore, this method of trading is appealing to those with a 
  narcissisticpersonality style.  This personality style is marked by 
  extremely grandiosestatements, which Mr. Elliott certainly made about his 
  'discovery'.  MrPrechter has exhibited traits of this personality 
  style as well.  The narc.style puts a lot of its self-worth on the 
  idea of being 'right' and may nottake opposing views or questions very 
  well.  This style is generally notconducive to long-term (>10 
  years) successful trading.  If you decide to tryto study under 
  someone, do not believe the hype.If you have any questions, feel free 
  to e-mail me personally.Scot Billington----- Original Message 
  -----From: <Sonnysark@xxxxxxx>To: 
  <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>Sent: Friday, November 17, 2000 10:39 
  AMSubject: Re: [RT] Elliott Wave> Thanks Earl...good 
  information.  -Sonny->>> To unsubscribe from this 
  group, send an email to:> 
  realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx>>>>To 
  unsubscribe from this group, send an email 
  to:realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx






eGroups Sponsor




<img width="468" height="60"
  border="0"
  alt=""
  src="http://adimg.egroups.com/img/9666/0/_/152424/_/974487647/WarningSports468x602E.gif";>









To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx