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Here is what I am watching. Sentiment measures are all bullish such as CBOE
Total Put Volume, 3 PCratios, a modified version of the Hines ratio, and of
course VIX to peak and turn down. Some of these items are wrong in trend
but correct at the extremes. Sounds useless but these items may peak and
turn before price does giving a day or two or three of advance notice. On
Thursday the PutVolume peaked and turned down in a "shallow" buy mode, could
still go higher, but it has peaked and turned for one day in oversold areas.
Hines ratio also turned in an extreme call buy alert. PCratios are all very
bullish, $C/$P, Total and Equity P/C ratios. VIX closed above 30 at 35 and
needs to turn down. It could easily go to 50 before this happens. Finally,
in the end its price trend that rules. The turn would also be accompanied
with NYSE TICK running above 0 with dips below zero rather than plunges
to -1000. TRIN would run below 1 most of the time. Thursday had the
qualities of a trading low, but it hardly seems likely that it will hold
with world events what they are. If things are not resolved before Friday
close, it would not be surprising to see more selling into the weekend
followed by a down Monday.
BobR
----- Original Message -----
From: "Harry & Maggie Feld" <ariel@xxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, October 13, 2000 3:39 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] MKT: Who sells
> Yes, I second Dan's reply. Ira is one of the pure gold nuggets on the r/t
list.
> Also
> Earl, Steve Poser, BobR, Ben, John L., Dennis, Gitanshu..... to name a
very
> few. ..............thanks to all you professional traders out there that
take
> the time and are willing to share some of your hard-earned wisdom. So....
can
> we keep this thread going? Anyone else out there willing to share some of
what
> they will be watching that might hint of a turn?...............Harry Feld
>
> Dan Harels wrote:
>
> > So.....I guess the answer to my question about whether mutual fund
managers
> > or the public "capitulates" is yes. Ira, glad to see you posting again
> > after a brief respite. I have missed your insights.
> >
> > Dan
> >
> > >From: Ira Tunik <ist@xxxxxx>
> > >Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > >Subject: Re: [RT] MKT: Who sells
> > >Date: Thu, 12 Oct 2000 19:25:48 -0700
> > >
> > >Today isn't the key day. Tomorrow is. The key is how much selling the
> > >funds will have to do because of redemptions and then their cash
> > >positions after the bulk of the panic is over. It hasn't come to the
> > >"We don't take any prisoners" state just yet. Ira
> > >
> > >John Rastutis wrote:
> > >
> > > > Gitanshu... Excellent example of what I suspect happens on most days
> > > > like this. I have looked for sources showing block trade volume on
the
> > > > web but have not found one. Where do you get this data, if I may
> > > > ask? Best, John
> > > >
> > > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > > From: Gitanshu Buch
> > > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Sent: Thursday, October 12, 2000 1:15 PM
> > > > Subject: [RT] MKT: Who sells
> > > > There was some q'n re who pukes out positions on days like
> > > > today. I think today is a living example. At this time,HD
> > > > total volume = 58 million shares.HD block volume = 44
> > > > million shares.and stock is down 29%. WMT total volume = 17
> > > > million sharesWMT block volume = 12 million sharesand stock
> > > > is down 2.5%. By comparison:INTC total volume 82 million
> > > > sharesINTC block volume 18 million shares.And stock is up
> > > > 7%. MeantimeC total volume 22 millionC block volume 16
> > > > million and BKX is knifing thru its 200 day like there was
> > > > no butter in the way. Gitanshu
> > > >
> > > > To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:
> > > > realtraders-unsubscribe@xxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
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> >
> >
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