|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
<x-html><!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META content="MSHTML 5.00.2919.6307" name=GENERATOR>
<STYLE></STYLE>
</HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff>
<DIV><FONT size=2>After looking at this ndx%correction chart in closer detail it
became apparant that the ndx makes new highs for about two and a half weeks
before a correction greater than 3% occurs. These times and percentages
are a rough eyeball view this morning.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>BR</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV> </DIV><FONT size=3>Gitanshu,<BR><BR> Great post.
Welcome back.<BR><BR> Just one comment with respect to the NDX
percentage declines that you attached to your post: Notice the symmetry
of magnitude of each of the last 5 declines....all nearly 12%. A classic
case of Symmetry Wave, a favorite of mine. Based on this method,
as a market declines, it has the propensity to find support at previous
magnitude declines (in this case the 12%). Unfortunately, as this
'structure' continues to mature and repeat/extend itself, it (the structure)
becomes less capable/reliable of holding those symmetrical
relationships. And as such, leads to failure. Note, this structure
is very mature with a 10 waves count.<BR><BR> Once the structure fails,
one would look to the next larger symmetrical wave structure to find
support. In this case, it would be the decline ending 10/8/98 which
measured 22.99%. When you calculate the leeway of +/-20% (22.99 x
20% = 4.6%), you get target decline of 18.39 - 27.59% in which you would find
additional symmetrical support.<BR><BR> Please note, I am <B>not </B>now
forecasting a top in the NDX but rather just identifying support zones in the
event a substantial decline should begin. Thus, allowing for preparation
of my portfolio using an early entry method to go long the NDX and
corresponding stocks when, and if, the market enters into a decline measuring
18.39% (22.99 - 4.6 = 18.39). Personally, I am still long many of the
techs that have been advancing at an astounding rate, but have been cutting my
positions in half to thirds because of this exponential growth that we are
seeing in stock prices. Sure, I could make more money, but for the last
2 years, I have been riding this technology wave and now I am starting to get
some nose bleeds. As a matter of fact, just the other day I was in the
shower washing my hair and to my surprise, my nose just started to bleed...it
was a mess. <BR><BR> Anyhow, you had a great post. Just thought I
would add my 2 cents.<BR><BR>John
Boggio<BR><BR></FONT></BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>
Attachment Converted: "f:\eudora\attach\NDX%CORR1.gif"
|