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Marlowe,
Your analysis may well prove correct, and such is, I suspect,
the hoped for outcome by most all of us. On the other hand,
the fact that FEMA plans on calling up 800 government crisis
team members, all fifty states will activate their Emergency
Communications Centers, leaves are, on the whole, cancelled for
the military, Amtrack will not be running trains over the
New Years weekend, many critical public institutions will have
full staffing on New Year's Eve, et cetera, gives one pause to
consider the possibilities.
Let us, for argument sake, agree the above are only trappings
to appease the public; they assure us that there really is no
cause for alarm. Let us agree that big instutions will endure.
As an aside, a relative has run a small auto parts chain in
Southern California for many years. Five years ago, he spent
upwards of fifty grand on an inventory control system. This
past spring, he discovered the system won't be Y2K compliant,
it will not work past the year. The vendor wanted to sell him
a new system, one that would be compliant. So there was a
choice; either spend another big chunk of change to boldly keep
going head to head with the Pep Boys, or buy a fifth-wheeler
and cruise the country after all the stores are shuttered.
And so, his former employees will be out of a job come 2000.
How many small to medium size business owners found themselves
in the same situation and, either by choice or default, shall
soon be closing?
This "non-event" has great potential for economic harm for the
world as time accrues, even though the immediate effect will be
devastating for those loyal employees soon to be without work.
If societal services maintain their function into next year,
then we will have an opportunity to evaluate the damage to be
inflicted on a macro level, as all those unemployed stress the
system. The evidence should become overwhelming by spring,
unless the extrapolation is fundamentally flawed.
Merry Christmas, everyone.
Rory Lewellen
Marlowe Cassetti wrote:
>
> Gwenn,
>
> If you are a stock & mutual fund investor and have a long term investment
> horizon then Y2K in a gnat on your investment pathway. I expect that it
> will be a non event. When the nervous Nelly's wake up next month and
> discover that they have missed a good size bull move, they will buy back in
> at higher prices.
>
> Having said all that, besides being a long term investor of mutual funds I
> am also an active futures trader who holds positions overnight and over
> weekends. I am thinking about whether or not to hold trades over the end of
> the year weekend. It might be quite a ride.
>
> Marlowe
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: List RT <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; List Serenity-Trading
> <serenity-trading@xxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 21, 1999 10:09 AM
> Subject: Dilemma
>
> > Hi all,
> >
> > What is your take here:
> >
> > With this raging bull going on, what would you do over the holidays?
> > Keep your long stocks or exit all and come back Jan 5th with a clean
> > plate?
> >
> > Gwenn
> >
> >
> >
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