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Realtraders,
Below is some analysis of the S&P 500 cash market in which Ned Markson
and I were discussing. It pertains to symmetrical relationships and my
outlook on current market conditions. I am posting it on the RT Forum for
your review.
Hope you find it interesting,
John Boggio
PS The attached chart can be used for a reference with respect to my
conversation with Ned. (Note, the chart was generated by Ned)
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Ned,
I now see what you did, BUT if you are basing your wave analysis method
on Michael Gur Dillon's method or my SymWave method, then your projection
of wave 2.3-2.4 is incorrect. Reason, the high of 12/10/99 (wave 2.3 high)
needs to be greater than the 2.1 high on 12/3/99.
Based on your snapshot of the .gif, there really is NO analysis that
could be conducted. Actually, based on the .gif, you would still need to
wait for one of two things to occur. 1 - If we make a new high, then the
wave 2.1-2.2 will become a measurable wave. Or 2nd - if the market
declines BELOW the 2.2 low, then you would be able to measure a rally wave
or bounce. At the present time, this rally would be measured FROM THE 2.2
LOW to the 2.3 HIGH (not a very big wave).
Finally, when I look at the broader market since the October 18th low,
there are NO wave structures except for the current high on 12/3/99 and the
low of 12/9 (as you identified with wave 2.1-2.2). But as I said above,
the bottom of 12/9 is not guaranteed UNTIL THE MARKET RALLIES ABOVE THE
12/3 HIGH.
Further, when I try to find the next compete wave 1-2, I have to go all
the way back to the July high (wave 1) and the October low (wave 2). Since
the December High is greater than the July high and it has begun to roll
over, then we can temporally say that the 12/3 high is NOW A WAVE 3
HIGH. If this wave were to come to fruition, then the market would have to
retrace all the way down to 1262 (186 pts +/- 20% or 37 pts). Note, I do
not see this magnitude decline in the immediate future. Personally, I
believe this market has unbelievable strength and any declines will end
quickly. At the present time, I believe a worst case scenario decline
would take us down to approximately the 1340-1360 area. At which point the
12/3 high will still be Wave 1A and the bottom of say 1350 will be Wave
B. And again provide a strong springboard for the market to rally well
into the first quarter of 2000. Finally, if we do not get a selloff of any
type between now and the end of the year, then I suspect the decline will
begin approximately 2 weeks into the new year. This decline will start
when it is recognized that the Fed has begun shrinking the Money Supply (M2
/ M3). Once they do this, your decline will begin. At which point the
market will sell off and probably retrace approximately 50% of its rally
since the October low, thus taking us to that 1340-1360 area. From there,
I would look for a retest of the highest high and then some sort of failure
which should occur sometime in the first quarter of 2000. This failure
could then result in our biggest broad market decline in years, measuring
anywhere from 20-37% (both of which are based on past symmetrical wave
declines AND ARE STILL VALID.
Let me know if you have any questions or thoughts,
John Boggio
PS I might post some or all of the above analysis on the RT Forum if you
don't object.
At 10:49 PM 12/16/99 -0800, you wrote:
Hi John -
I attached a gif that hopefully explains what I was looking at on the
15th. The picture has now changed, of course :) but this illustrates
what I saw at that time.
Ned
G.John Boggio wrote:
>
> Ned,
>
> I went to your website to see your symmetrical wave relationship but
> could not find it. Could you give me a few more specifics on this
> wave, I can't find it when I look at my charts.
>
> Thanks,
> John
>
> At 12:46 PM 12/15/99 -0500, you wrote:
>
> There is symmetric wave support for the SPX at 1366 which
> corresponds to a 38.4% retracement. Support on either side
> of
> this level exists at 1352 and 1380. If I had to guess, and I
> do
> every now and then, this range of support looks like the
> levels
> we are heading towards for this leg down.
>
> Regards
>
> Ned Markson
> http://www.erols.com/cnedgo
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