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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The post below was sent with attachment,
however it did not get through. For those interested, email me and I'll try
to send the attachment individually.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jim</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>My work in forecasting significant pivots in the
DJIA suggests the next significant pivot will be 12/14. The last significant
pivot was the 10/18 low. So far in 1999 I have forecast 17 out of 17 significant
pivots. Since I believe current scenarios are more a function of current
movements than those in the distant past (August 97 - Feb. 98) according to my
near impulse theory, I submit the following alternate analysis for
consideration.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(1) The extent of an impulse move
can be estimated as a fib. expansion of the last wave of the topping or
bottoming pattern. According to Tony Plummer the "natural" expectation is 2.618
with an outer limit of 4.236. The extent of a price trend can also be forecast
as fib. expansions of the retracement moves. Using these rules it is shown on
the attached figure ( double click the hotmail icon to open) that the extent of
the move down from the 8/24 high was forecast at the 2.618 levels as
shown.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(2) The extent of the trend move
up from the 10/18 low is forecast to be 11954 (2.618 level) based on the
strength of the last wave down (10/11 high to 10/18 low)</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(3) The first retracement of the
uptrend (10/22 high to 10/27 low) suggests the top of the trend move at 11318
(4.236 level) or approximately where we are now. This level, as a <U>temporary
top</U>, is supported by the 2.618 expansion (11,348) of the second retracement
(11/5 high to 11/12 low). However the ultimate top suggested by this move is
11,847 at the 4.236 level and agrees with the forecast described in (2)
above.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(4) The third retracement (11/22
high to 12/1 low) suggests a natural top at the 2.618 level 0f
11,948.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(5) The current uptrend move from
the 10/18 low is 98% of the down trend from 8/24 to 10/18. This suggests that
this move is an <U>initial wave </U>up of a new longer trend . Achieving
sustained prices above the 8/24 high will confirm this .</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>In summary there is evidence that this move up
could incur significant resistance at the current levels due to (a) the
resistance of the 8/24 top, (b) the fib. expansions of the previous
retracements. However, there is also evidence to support an expectation of only
a minor retracement from here and then a continued move up to the 11,800 - 12.00
level by 12/14. </FONT></DIV></FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jim White<BR>PIVOT Research & Trading
Inc.</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Mon Dec 06 06:43:16 1999
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Date: Sun, 05 Dec 1999 23:52:38 -0800
From: Mervin Yeung <tinyeung@xxxxxxxx>
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Subject: [RT] [Fwd: Virus set for Jan. 1, 2000] {01}
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Status:
Hi RTs,
Before I forward any virus alert, I always check if it is real or it is
a hoax: http://www.symantec.com/avcenter/vinfodb.html
This Symantec site is great because you can search its virus database by
keywords.
Details about this new virus can be found at this site:
http://www.symantec.com/avcenter/venc/data/w32.mypics.worm.html
Or you can read the following forwarded e-mail.
MervinReturn-Path: <tung_hun_hooi@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
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From: TUNG HUN HOOI <tung_hun_hooi@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <tinyeung@xxxxxxxx>, <mancheng@xxxxxxxxxxx>, <gkchan@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Virus set for Jan. 1, 2000
Message-ID: <0056650011379941000002L512*@MHS>
Date: Mon, 6 Dec 1999 02:33:20 -0500
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---------------------- Forwarded by Tung Hun Hooi/AP/GDYR on 12/06/99 03:36 PM
---------------------------
tunghh@xxxxxxxxxxx on 12/06/99 08:34:23 AM
To: TUNG HUN HOOI/AP/GDYR@xxxxxxxx
cc:
Subject: Virus set for Jan. 1, 2000
This NEWS.COM (http://www.news.com/) story has been sent to you from
tunghh@xxxxxxxxxxx
Virus set for Jan. 1, 2000
By Erich Luening and Wylie Wong
December 3, 1999, 12:10 p.m. PT
http://home.cnet.com/category/0-1003-200-1478364.html
Although your computer might be inoculated against the Y2K bug, there is a
new virus floating about that will change home page
settings to pornographic sites and then wipe out hard drives at the
millennium moment.
The virus--the latest in a series of increasingly flamboyant viruses that
prey on vulnerabilities in Microsoft desktop
software--is called W32/Mypics.worm and is triggered by the date Jan. 1, 2000.
The worm, limited to Microsoft Outlook and Internet
Explorer users, is received as an email attachment disguised as a picture.
Virus Alert Name: W32/Mypics.worm
What it does: If opened, the virus will delete your hard drives after New
Year's Day. It may also change the default home page of
your Web browser.
Means of transmission: Email. Uses Microsoft's Outlook to replicate.
How to recognize: Arrives as an email with no subject line. Message reads:
"Here's some pictures for you," with a file titled,
"Pics4You.exe."
Who is at risk: Any Windows 95, 98 users. Once opened, it infects
the host computer and attempts to send itself using
Microsoft Outlook to up to 50 people in the users' address book. It also
changes the Home page in Internet Explorer to a site
containing adult content, Symantec warned in an alert sent out today.
Symantec, which discovered the virus, rates this as a medium
to high-risk virus.
But the damage to the unsuspecting user doesn't truly happen until Jan. 1,
2000. The virus works by masking as a Y2K problem,
which will prompt users to reboot. When an infected computer is rebooted,
however, the virus will attempt to format the local hard
drives and erase all data, Symantec said.
"The user's left wondering if this is all happening because of Y2K," said
Vincent Weafer, director of the anti-virus research
center.
W32/Mypics.worm arrives in an email, with no subject line. The body of the
message reads, "Here's some pictures for you!" The
email message contains a "Pics4You.exe" attachment that is approximately
34,304 bytes in size.
Once the user opens the attachment, the worm loads itself into memory and
executes by sending out copies of itself attached to
emails addressed to up to 50 people in the users address list. It then
modifies the system registry to manipulate the system
startup and also changes the user's home page in Internet Explorer to a
GeoCities hosted Web site that contains adult content.
When this happens, and people notice the Home page change, Weafer said users
should get suspicious and initiate anti-virus scans
on their machine. He warns this should be done before Jan. 1, so the virus
doesn't launch.
"This is the fifth Y2K-related virus we've discovered so far," said
Weafer. "There is a lot of activity around Y2K. A lot of
people are looking to get some of the publicity related to the problem." He,
like other observers, expects more people to try to
write viruses between now and the first of the year and have it trigger during
the new year.
Although the newest Y2K worm is not a Melissa variant, the new worm is
similar to Melissa, said Narender Mangalan, Computer
Associates' director of security. Several of Computer Associates' large
customers have found it on their systems.
The new virus is the third Melissa relative to hit in the last two weeks.
Prilissa--which triggers during Christmas--and the
variant to Worm.ExploreZip--which deletes files--are the other two.
Prilissa also can knock out hard drives, but is triggered to go off on Dec.
25.
"[The W32/Mypics.worm virus] combines all the bad things the previous viruses
had. It can send itself to 50 email addresses on
your address book, it's a date-triggered virus that triggers on Y2K. And it
can delete the information on your hard drive."
Mangalan said this is yet another reason to prepare for Y2K, warning that
people must make sure they're Y2K-compliant.
Otherwise, "When people come in after New Year's, they don't know if they're
problem is due to a virus or the Y2K bug."
People can protect their computers by not opening the attached document.
Update anti-virus software to ensure protection against
the worm, said Weafer. Additional information on the new virus is available at
the Symantec Web site.
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