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</x-html>From ???@??? Sun Dec 05 17:42:13 1999
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From: Jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
Message-ID: <0.f4a39ee.257c6646@xxxxxxx>
Date: Sun, 5 Dec 1999 20:07:18 EST
Subject: [RT] SP500 Near Term {01}
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Status:
I debated on whether to post these notes,.....
as I have already shared them with one or two
other RT'rs who gave me feedback with alternative
forecast scenarios. So with a huge disclaimer that
this is simply one person's perspective,...and just as
likely to be wrong as it is to be valid,....I am squinting
as I hit the Send Now button...
************************
End of Week Notes Fri. 12-03 Dow 11286.18 S&P500 1433.3
On daily Dow-30 chart,..note a likely "flag" consolidation formed
between 10-29 and 11-12 appears to be the "focal or mid-point"
of a minor mirror image between the 10-18 low and 12-03 "high?".
(10-18 to center at 11-09 is 16 mkt days,...and 11-09 to 12-03
is 17 mkt days,...for a total of 33 mkt days from 10-18 low to
likely high 12-03. The 33-34 mkt day count is common for
low-high duration over past five years. VIX at 20.82
is in potential market topping area,...as is the 5 day TRIN
which indicates market topping also.
Next potential pivot dates include 12-07 (New Moon) ....then
12-10 (13 mkt day count from 11-22, 11-03, 10-15, etc).
If we are at a high, suspect this timeframe to mark a move
lower into 12-23 (note 12-22 Full Moon/ Winter begins)
which is indicated by a myriad of methods as significant.
Importantly,...and I would very much appreciate any thoughts on this,
...there appears a potential Mirror Image on the daily Dow-30 chart.
Centered on the low of 10-18-99, the 33 days to the right side of the image
is fairly symmetric with the 37 days to the left (since late August high)
side.....
suggesting at a minimum a double top,...in addition to a 12 to 14 mkt
day decline likely here once a turn down occurs. (The mirror image of
the advance from early Aug low into late Aug high.) This is most
intriguing as 14 mkt days from the 12-03 potential high falls exactly
on 12-23 which is indicated as a likely intermediate term cycle turn
by various separate methods. Note a Full Moon occurs on 12-22,
which is also the first day of Winter. The 12-23 potential cycle
low has been the subject of previous RT postings.
Sentiment: Key weekly surveys indicate solidly "overbelieved"
which is very negative from a contrary perspective. AAII Bulls 62%,
Bears 13%,...a whopping 5 times as many Bulls, and 62% Bulls
is a 5 year high,....13% Bears a 10-12 year low. Inv. Intell. 53%
Bulls, 27% Bears,...twice as many bulls,.now over 50% Bulls for
three weeks, with Bears at 30% or less. Other weekly surveys
concur,....and reflect "overbelief". Yet very short term Daily Index
Put/Call ratio has firmed last 3 days (@ 1.7 W, 2.74 Th, 1.68 F)
indicating money mangers hedging against a delcine.
Daily P/C ratio less significant than weekly surveys though.
Currently maintaining exposure to Pacific Basin type mutual funds....
..focus on Japan/Asia where markets should rise strongly (on follow
through to US advance) when Pacific Basin re-opens Sunday night.
Regards, Jim Pilliod jpilleafe@xxxxxxx
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