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<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>I ran across and interesting article in Barrons'
last week that talks about the "Greenspan indicator" Basically
it compares the earnings yield to the 10 year yield on Treasury notes where the
earnings yield = forecasted</FONT><FONT color=#000000 size=2> profits next 12
months/ s and p 500 value. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Yardeni in the article mentions that there is
trouble when the equity market is 20-30% overvalued. We currently stand at
10%. The obvious problem with this model is the ability to forecast
profits since analysts are so often wrong. If profits are less than
expected we can see higher risk in this market at least through Greenspans
eyes.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT color=#000000 size=2>Any opinions, comments?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>What sources do people use that forecast S and P
earnings. Are any of these considered the "gold
standard"?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Good trading</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT size=2>Marc Lawrence</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>
</x-html>From ???@??? Tue Dec 08 16:51:28 1998
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Any comments about Harbor Securities or Precision Edge Securities from the
group?
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