Question on Volitility

[TRaffertu@xxxxxxx]

       Hi Doc and RT's

        A few months ago you made the statement on CNBC that a 400 point move
on the Dow was possible about once each month (I think I have that correct).
 Ron Insana almost choked when he herd that.  In light of the recent Dow
moves, what is your current position on volitility?

         What did (do) you base that call on?  Is there a simple mathamatical
way to calculate the extreams and the likelyhood that they will be reached?

          Thanks in advance for your responce.

                          Good luck and good trading,
                                     Ray Raffurty