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arnoldt@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Arnold Thompson) wrote:
<<OK, let me remind you that a market never has one leg. There are either 3
or 5>>
I don't believe I said the "correction" would be over after the suspected
bottom of 7600. The entire correction "low" may end up being the lows of
yesterday, just above 7600, but I would consider the recent drop only a
single leg of the correction. A "feel" for the rest of the correction will
come from the character of the rise from yesterdays lows (8/18).
This morning 8/19 we are breaking through the upper trendline of the "down
trending" channel I outlined on a submitted graph of the Dow. This implies
to me that we are in the process of confirming the end of this recent drop.
The Elliott "zigzag" looks to be the most viable at the moment, especially
since we "turned" 8/18 as we touched the lower channel trendline, and close
enough to 7600 to consider a direct hit on the expected resistance level as
explained in the previous post.
The clincher as to whether the move down from 8/7 is corrective or impulsive
will come if we move through 8000. That is the suspected low of a wave 1,
and as you know a wave 4 must not overlap wave 1.
<<This said, the next probable scenario is a rebound as we started on today
(wave B or 2), and then another wave down (wave C or 3). This is not an
interaday count.
Wave A had it's own abc count on the way down.>>
I agree. It is the fact we stayed remained enclosed within the downtrending
parallel channel that has me leaning more to the corrective ABC than the
impulsive count. As I write the Dow is only 25 or so points above the
channel, and we must stay above or risk voiding this "count"
<<My preferred count, which coincides with Precther's Elliottwave, is an A
wave with a B in progress. Wave C will be forthcoming. But in this great
Bull Market, as happens frequently in commodities, Wave C has often been
shortened and does not make decisively new lows.>>
Very true, and what you'll also notice is that rather than have ABCs with a C
wave failure as you describe, we frequently continue correcting with wave D
and E, more commonly referred to as a triangle, wedge, flag, or pennant.
That's why I say it is quite possible, if we can confirm this first drop as
being over, it may end up being the low of the entire correction. Far too
early to know for sure, but very possible.
<<Most people don't know that Pretcher's Elliott counts can and have been
bullish and correct.>>
Mr. Prechter is an excellent promoter of Mr. Prechter. Very little can be
gained by a discussion of whether some guru's wave count is better than some
other guru's. I personally ignore them all, and manage to do quite well.
Regards,
Peter
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